Posted by on October 10, 2020 5:07 am

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Categories: 2020 Election Coal Region Newswire 2

See our Oct. 18 prediction: The Canary’s Latest Election Prediction: Trump 338, Biden 200

We’ll surely get mail on this one but on Nov. 3, we’re predicting a landslide victory for President Donald Trump.

Now, for our projections below, they’re purely made up out of thin air. That’s to say we got our information and data from the same place the so-called professional pollsters get theirs.

We’ll update this map weekly. And then we’ll compare our final prediction to the actual results.

Canary Has Trump Winning in a Landslide – Electoral Map Prediction #1

This is how we’re feeling on Oct. 10, 24 days from Election Day.

It’s going to be Trump in a landslide. We’ve got 330 for the incumbent Trump and just 208 for the former Vice President Joe Biden.

And in our first prediction map, we’ve got at least 1 whopper of a shock result.

That’s right. We’ve got New Jersey flipping RED. Go ahead, tell us we’re crazy. We may not deny it. And by our final prediction map in a few weeks, we think there may be another big Blue state to flip.

Methodology

As noted above, we’re going purely on gut feeling with our prediction. But at least we’re not using biased polling.

The truth about those polls is just about anyone can come up with numbers that at least seem true. You can predict, based on previous elections, how races are going to turn out before they happen. Adjust a number up or down for weeks leading up to the Election and you’ve just created some engaging content.

But rather than just spew out numbers drawn from mid-air, we’ll give a little reasoning behind our prediction.

Rust Belt Frustration

Trump will cruise to a landslide victory on the back of the Rust Belt, just as he did in 2016. We’ve been hearing for 4 years about people who regret their vote for Trump in 2016 but honestly, how many of those people do you believe exist?

What changed about Trump from then until now? People aren’t flipping on the President because of his attitude or his tweets or some other petty reason the #FakeNews tells you is the reason these so-called voters flip.

It’s never made any sense.

In fact, there’s definitely reason to believe that people living in the Rust Belt are increasingly frustrated with their state’s governor due to hyper-extended COVID lockdowns and restrictions.

That’s definitely the case in Pennsylvania. We believe Tom Wolf needs to prevent a veto-proof majority on Nov. 3 to keep his firm grip on the state. If enough seats get flipped, he’ll have to let go of the controls by himself or face certain impeachment.

And you’d have hard time convincing us that the situation isn’t the same in Ohio and Michigan. It’s definitely been the case in New Jersey, too, and that’s why we believe it is ripe for Trump to pick off the Democrats.

Civil unrest and lawlessness in Wisconsin and Minnesota, sadly, will mean more votes for Trump in November. We say sadly because it had to come to what it did in order for people to wake up in those states.

Even if you gave New Jersey and one of either Minnesota or Wisconsin to Biden, it wouldn’t be enough to put him over the top. You could give him Arizona, too, and it still wouldn’t put him in the White House.

So, this is our first call prediction:

  • Trump: 330
  • Biden: 208

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

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13 responses to Our Early Presidential Election Prediction: Trump 330, Biden 208

  1. Anony Mouse October 11th, 2020 at 12:31 pm

    Interesting…. So you have Trump winning New Jersey, but losing Louisiana and New Hampshire? Curious as to why. (I would have pegged it just the opposite.)

    Reply

    • Canary Commenter October 11th, 2020 at 1:07 pm

      Have to leave a little meat on the bone for next week’s projection map 😉

      Reply

  2. Jason Bourne October 12th, 2020 at 11:00 am

    Wishful thinking Canary. More like Biden 375 Trump 163.

    Reply

    • Justsayno ToJoe October 12th, 2020 at 11:53 am

      Hidin Joe Biden? Will he be presiding over the country from his basement behind his mask? No thanks!

      Reply

  3. Todd E Shields October 13th, 2020 at 12:13 am

    I don’t have 330. I think Trump will be between 304 – 310….but still a landslide. You are right…it is the intangibles that data sometimes misses. I literally do the “intangibles guesstimating” for a living (I am in finance for government contracting). Nice to see unbiased folks out there…kudos.

    Reply

    • Canary Commenter October 13th, 2020 at 3:14 am

      We kinda screwed up our map on a state or two but we expect it to change in the next few weeks. Crowds don’t lie; polls do.

      Reply

  4. Savvyheat October 13th, 2020 at 1:40 am

    Very interesting analysis. I’m here in California so not close enough to see what’s going on personally. But I read the Trump campaign has door-knocked 2 million homes in the swing states since June. The Biden campaign zero. Apparently he has now authorized door-knocking to begin as of a week ago, but gotta figure it’s kinda tough to stand up a ground game with only weeks left. Would be interested to hear if you think all those personal interactions with voters by the Trump campaign could be a difference maker? Thanks and be safe!

    Reply

    • Canary Commenter October 13th, 2020 at 3:13 am

      Haven’t seen any Trump door knockers here in the coal region but not really a whole lot of reasons to do so. Schuylkill County went HEAVY Trump in 2016. It’s a lock here. If it’s happening, hopefully it’s in the Philly burbs. Renewed lockdowns and business closure orders, if they happen, could be a motivator for some to vote to end this madness.

      Reply

  5. Jason Bourne October 13th, 2020 at 9:06 pm

    Everyone knows Trump has a base but he doesn’t have a tent. You don’t win a national election without one. You either love him or hate him and not enough people love him. For him to win he needs a game changer to stop Biden’s momentum. It’s not happening.

    Reply

  6. Steven Fruge October 17th, 2020 at 2:09 pm

    Who decided that Louisiana would be Blue, on your map ? I believe that Trump will win the election, but with the Great State of Louisiana going for Trump. This is a easy one to pick, and I do not understand how you guys could get it so wrong.

    Reply

  7. CJ Marbrook October 17th, 2020 at 9:39 pm

    Yeah you’re right Steven.
    Orange Man is way ahead in Louisiana.
    It’s not even close.

    https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/la-pres-0820/

    Reply

  8. willis October 18th, 2020 at 5:14 pm

    I live in Louisiana. I have to say, despite our democrat governor in John Bel Edwards, my sense is Louisiana will be a red state, just as it was in 2016

    Reply

    • Canary Commenter October 18th, 2020 at 6:58 pm

      Yeah, we’ve been taking a ribbing over the Louisiana pick. Our sense is you’ll find the updated prediction more to your liking.

      Reply

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