See our Oct. 18 prediction: The Canary’s Latest Election Prediction: Trump 338, Biden 200
We’ll surely get mail on this one but on Nov. 3, we’re predicting a landslide victory for President Donald Trump.
Now, for our projections below, they’re purely made up out of thin air. That’s to say we got our information and data from the same place the so-called professional pollsters get theirs.
We’ll update this map weekly. And then we’ll compare our final prediction to the actual results.
Canary Has Trump Winning in a Landslide – Electoral Map Prediction #1
This is how we’re feeling on Oct. 10, 24 days from Election Day.
It’s going to be Trump in a landslide. We’ve got 330 for the incumbent Trump and just 208 for the former Vice President Joe Biden.
And in our first prediction map, we’ve got at least 1 whopper of a shock result.
That’s right. We’ve got New Jersey flipping RED. Go ahead, tell us we’re crazy. We may not deny it. And by our final prediction map in a few weeks, we think there may be another big Blue state to flip.
Methodology
As noted above, we’re going purely on gut feeling with our prediction. But at least we’re not using biased polling.
The truth about those polls is just about anyone can come up with numbers that at least seem true. You can predict, based on previous elections, how races are going to turn out before they happen. Adjust a number up or down for weeks leading up to the Election and you’ve just created some engaging content.
But rather than just spew out numbers drawn from mid-air, we’ll give a little reasoning behind our prediction.
Rust Belt Frustration
Trump will cruise to a landslide victory on the back of the Rust Belt, just as he did in 2016. We’ve been hearing for 4 years about people who regret their vote for Trump in 2016 but honestly, how many of those people do you believe exist?
What changed about Trump from then until now? People aren’t flipping on the President because of his attitude or his tweets or some other petty reason the #FakeNews tells you is the reason these so-called voters flip.
It’s never made any sense.
In fact, there’s definitely reason to believe that people living in the Rust Belt are increasingly frustrated with their state’s governor due to hyper-extended COVID lockdowns and restrictions.
That’s definitely the case in Pennsylvania. We believe Tom Wolf needs to prevent a veto-proof majority on Nov. 3 to keep his firm grip on the state. If enough seats get flipped, he’ll have to let go of the controls by himself or face certain impeachment.
And you’d have hard time convincing us that the situation isn’t the same in Ohio and Michigan. It’s definitely been the case in New Jersey, too, and that’s why we believe it is ripe for Trump to pick off the Democrats.
Civil unrest and lawlessness in Wisconsin and Minnesota, sadly, will mean more votes for Trump in November. We say sadly because it had to come to what it did in order for people to wake up in those states.
Even if you gave New Jersey and one of either Minnesota or Wisconsin to Biden, it wouldn’t be enough to put him over the top. You could give him Arizona, too, and it still wouldn’t put him in the White House.
So, this is our first call prediction:
- Trump: 330
- Biden: 208
Click the map to create your own at ALSO READ:
- Tom Wolf’s New Crowd Size Limits in Pennsylvania Defy Math and Logic
- Why is the Next Presidential Debate Moderator Tweeting to Anthony Scaramucci?
- The RBG Dying Wish Never Happened
- Trump Drops the F-bomb on Rush Limbaugh Radio Rally
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Anony Mouse
October 11, 2020 at 12:31 pm
Interesting…. So you have Trump winning New Jersey, but losing Louisiana and New Hampshire? Curious as to why. (I would have pegged it just the opposite.)
Canary Commenter
October 11, 2020 at 1:07 pm
Have to leave a little meat on the bone for next week’s projection map 😉
Elise
October 29, 2020 at 1:20 am
I can’t speak for Louisiana and New Hampshire, but NJ loves Trump. Google NJ Trump Boat parades or NJ Trump car runs. The number of people that show up consistently for these events is insane! When Trump holds rallies in NJ people are lined up for days for the chance to get in. Every predictor map (besides this one) labels NJ as solid blue, which makes me think they’re just relying on old trends, rather than keeping up with what’s going on in the state. I can’t say for sure that Trump is going to win it, but I won’t be at all surprised if he flips NJ red.
willie
November 4, 2020 at 4:55 am
scratch both and Karen and Rob co-presidents
Jason Bourne
October 12, 2020 at 11:00 am
Wishful thinking Canary. More like Biden 375 Trump 163.
Justsayno ToJoe
October 12, 2020 at 11:53 am
Hidin Joe Biden? Will he be presiding over the country from his basement behind his mask? No thanks!
Chris
November 1, 2020 at 2:30 am
Wrong Trump landslide,oh and by the way you are living in a dream world neo!
Todd E Shields
October 13, 2020 at 12:13 am
I don’t have 330. I think Trump will be between 304 – 310….but still a landslide. You are right…it is the intangibles that data sometimes misses. I literally do the “intangibles guesstimating” for a living (I am in finance for government contracting). Nice to see unbiased folks out there…kudos.
Canary Commenter
October 13, 2020 at 3:14 am
We kinda screwed up our map on a state or two but we expect it to change in the next few weeks. Crowds don’t lie; polls do.
Savvyheat
October 13, 2020 at 1:40 am
Very interesting analysis. I’m here in California so not close enough to see what’s going on personally. But I read the Trump campaign has door-knocked 2 million homes in the swing states since June. The Biden campaign zero. Apparently he has now authorized door-knocking to begin as of a week ago, but gotta figure it’s kinda tough to stand up a ground game with only weeks left. Would be interested to hear if you think all those personal interactions with voters by the Trump campaign could be a difference maker? Thanks and be safe!
Canary Commenter
October 13, 2020 at 3:13 am
Haven’t seen any Trump door knockers here in the coal region but not really a whole lot of reasons to do so. Schuylkill County went HEAVY Trump in 2016. It’s a lock here. If it’s happening, hopefully it’s in the Philly burbs. Renewed lockdowns and business closure orders, if they happen, could be a motivator for some to vote to end this madness.
Jason Bourne
October 13, 2020 at 9:06 pm
Everyone knows Trump has a base but he doesn’t have a tent. You don’t win a national election without one. You either love him or hate him and not enough people love him. For him to win he needs a game changer to stop Biden’s momentum. It’s not happening.
John
October 25, 2020 at 10:37 pm
Biden doesn’t have “momentum”.
Jason Bourne
October 26, 2020 at 12:59 am
Lol. We will find out soon enough!
Marc Robertson
October 25, 2020 at 11:29 pm
Jason, you’d better google momentum. Bidden is it’s antithesis. Funny though, why are we even talking (no question mark, just being rhetorical). All of the same people will vote for Trump, and, throw in a few snowflakes that the peaceful protests rattled. Trump will win again, by a wider margin. 🙂 ~m
Jason Bourne
October 26, 2020 at 1:05 am
Look at the polls. States like Texas and Georgia are traditionally red states. They’re toss-ups right now. Also states he won like Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania are all blue. Biden has a solid 9-12 pt. lead nationally. That’s a landslide in today’s political landscape.
Rebekah
October 26, 2020 at 2:14 am
Come on, man – take your own advice. Look at the polls – POTUS is polling even with Biden with black voters and extremely well with Latinos (many of whom came here from socialist countries and have no intention of heading back that way.) When asked if people thought they were better off now than 4 years ago, 2/3 answered yes – even after covid! Biden drew a couple dozen people to his Jon Bon Jerkoff extravaganza. He’s got no momentum. His fracking F’up during the debate and his extremely poor dodging in his family’s apparent corruption were the final nail in the coffin. Nobody with an ounce of common sense is going to vote for someone who has promised on video to “transition” us from fossil fuels to poverty.
KRISSA EMERSON
October 26, 2020 at 11:30 am
Ummmm..yeah Texas is and always will be a red state. We love our President, We love God, We back the blue and respect our military. Also, in case you have forgotten, we LOVE our guns and support the 2nd ferociously. We are true patriots and would never vote someone in to take all that away. We would rather fight then submit. To say Texas is a “toss up” is insulting. Texas for Trump!
Steven Fruge
October 17, 2020 at 2:09 pm
Who decided that Louisiana would be Blue, on your map ? I believe that Trump will win the election, but with the Great State of Louisiana going for Trump. This is a easy one to pick, and I do not understand how you guys could get it so wrong.
Liam
October 27, 2020 at 1:51 am
I think because some idiots voted a Dem Govoner?
CJ Marbrook
October 17, 2020 at 9:39 pm
Yeah you’re right Steven.
Orange Man is way ahead in Louisiana.
It’s not even close.
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/la-pres-0820/
willis
October 18, 2020 at 5:14 pm
I live in Louisiana. I have to say, despite our democrat governor in John Bel Edwards, my sense is Louisiana will be a red state, just as it was in 2016
Canary Commenter
October 18, 2020 at 6:58 pm
Yeah, we’ve been taking a ribbing over the Louisiana pick. Our sense is you’ll find the updated prediction more to your liking.
gd
October 26, 2020 at 1:19 am
Trump 278 to 282. He will lose Nevada and Colorado, but He will lose enough to be a closer race.
Biden has lost Ohio and Florida. He will also lose PA and MI.
Krissa
October 26, 2020 at 11:10 am
Texas will NEVER, and I mean NEVER turn Blue. People, especially ones that are not from our wonderful state, should understand that now. Trump is highly respected and loved here in the Lonestar State! If Texas went blue, then that would be proof enough that it was rigged. Point Blank.
KRISSA EMERSON
October 26, 2020 at 11:19 am
Texas will NEVER turn blue. People that are not from here need to understand that. We love and respect President Trump and will continue to back him. You do realize how much we love our guns and support the 2nd right? Why the hell would we do anything to jeopardize that? We are true patriots and love our state, back the blue and support our military. Blue is NOT our color. Period.
Ryles
October 26, 2020 at 6:35 pm
DEP is investigating Schuylkill Cty Sewage Treatment Plants’ capacity as much dignity will be flushed down the toilet on Nov 4.
Liam
October 27, 2020 at 1:52 am
I think because some idiots voted a Dem Govoner?
Jason Bourne
October 27, 2020 at 8:01 am
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/25/texas-biden-trump-poll-432217 I’m not going to say Biden will win Texas Krissa but the fact he’s in the hunt in Texas just shows how weak the President’s chances of re-election are.
Wanjo
October 27, 2020 at 11:18 am
Trump will win! Minnesota will flip RED. There are thousands of Trump signs everywhere..
Joe
October 27, 2020 at 2:50 pm
Trump will stay in office – Repubs will keep the Senate and the Libs will hold the House.
That’s my prediction.
Fika
October 28, 2020 at 12:01 am
Trump will win again for another 4 years. Mark my words.
Tom
October 28, 2020 at 1:41 pm
Are you guys serious?
Every single national poll / map has Biden leading by a wide margin. Where do you get your data from?
https://www.270towin.com/2020-election-forecast-predictions/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
Canary Commenter
October 28, 2020 at 1:45 pm
Reading articles really helps you answer questions as dumb as you’re asking.
PTFloridians
October 29, 2020 at 12:02 pm
Andy is actually German, for Dick…
Mb
October 31, 2020 at 2:36 am
dontaskme2cook@msn.com
Ben
October 29, 2020 at 5:27 am
Trump in a landslide…this is laughable.
Phil
October 29, 2020 at 7:58 pm
Let’s not forget that on 10/20/16 the “polls” had Clinton with a heavy lead. RCP election map on that day has Clinton 203, Trump 164, with 171 toss up. If you change the map to “no toss up” they were predicting Clinton 272 and Trump 266. They were way off. Polls can give insight, but they do not show what “will” happen.
More than that, the phrase numbers don’t lie is for suckers. As an engineer I can tell you that data is simply data. How that data is structured to tell the story is what is important. This is an over simplification, but you can summarize the data to show what the truth is, or you can make it work to prove your point (agenda). The later is not helpful (unless you are trying to get elected).
I would also ask, do you know anyone voted for Clinton that is planning on voting for Trump? How about voted for Trump that plans on voting for Biden? In either case I would guess that it would be rare to make that sort of shift. However, the likelihood of someone that voted 3rd party in 2016 now voting for Trump is high. I can see Trump numbers growing, but where do we suppose the Biden surge in numbers is coming from?
——E Pluribus Unum——-
Lastly, lets please keep in mind that we are not against each other. We have a difference of opinion and might think those that vote for the “other party” are nuts, but respect their choice. That said, let’s tone down the name calling. There are too many forces right now trying to divide us. (black/white, Christian/Muslim, Republican/Democrat, LBGT/straight, alien/native and so on). It wasn’t that extreme as little as twenty years ago.
Let’s not get played. Dividing us from with-in is not for our benefit and in no way makes our country stronger.
PTFloridians
October 30, 2020 at 8:45 am
Outstanding commentary and observations Phil. Well said.
Jason Bourne
October 30, 2020 at 4:57 am
It’s over Phil. It’s all over for Trump! Down goes Trump, down goes Trump!
Canary Commenter
October 30, 2020 at 11:07 am
Excited for 4 more years of your belly-aching over the Orange Man, really.
Boy Wonder
October 31, 2020 at 9:53 am
Batman predicted Trump back in 1966!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKjhaSlr0Jg
Canary Commenter
October 31, 2020 at 10:13 am
Love it!
KRISSA EMERRSON
November 2, 2020 at 9:28 am
This is GOLD! I always knew I loved Batman….such a smart guy. #Trump2020
JJ Jackson
November 2, 2020 at 8:37 am
Ain’t no question the Canary is right again.
Here we is on Nov 2 and every poll I took is showin President
Trump headed toward a landslide victory for sure.
Only problem is what’s he gonna do in next 4 years since he done everything he promised to. Wall is built and Mexico paid for it, hilliarys in jail, illegals is all kicked out, national debt is zero…
Jason Bourne
November 2, 2020 at 5:53 pm
The latest Presidential election forecast by 538. Biden in a landslide! https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
Canary Commenter
November 2, 2020 at 7:52 pm
Yeah, how’d that work out 4 years ago?
Just an ole fat man
November 3, 2020 at 1:57 pm
To trust any predicted outcome would be foolish, divided as we are as a nation proves we have lost our way already. I do pray whom ever wins the election today understands the responsibility and weight of the office thy vie for. But sadly, one side I feel only wishes to divide us further to draw our power from us and the other, try as they may, will be fraught with endless legal strife from the other, infighting and stalemate of the branches of power will continue and the greed and lust for power of the men and women of our electorate will hold back any progress or good they all could accomplish if they would only work together. I fought and nearly died for this country , only to come home to be spit upon by those who testify as the tolerant, shouted down when I tried to speak any truth, vilified for my views, They strangle us with regulation and try to neuter our freedom at every turn with their elitist view of “knowing better what is good for us than we ourselves” woe unto those who gave up their lives for this country and for our freedoms, they would roll over in their graves if they only knew what we have allowed to happen to our country. We are all, sadly to blame. Precious Lord, please have mercy on this great country….Amen….
Jason Bourne
November 4, 2020 at 5:35 pm
It’s almost over for Donald Trump Canary. It’s in the bag. We don’t even need Pa. to win.
McDonald Trump
November 5, 2020 at 4:21 am
well you guys were way way too high when you predicted a landslide for Trump….looks like he’s gonna be packing his bags LOL
marge
November 5, 2020 at 10:08 pm
Sounds like you think those votes were legal
marge
November 5, 2020 at 10:08 pm
I dont think many of us believe they were valid votes.
Jason Bourne
November 6, 2020 at 5:13 am
Of course, because you’re losing. Mail in ballots heavily favored Democrats. In this state it was 2 to 1.
Margaret Bailey
November 6, 2020 at 9:21 pm
Is there a way to mobilize PA people for a recount. I heard a priest talk today that something is going on shady in PA…i know wolfe hates trump. What can we do as citizens, march on his street, capital…to ask for recount…Pretty bad when a priest says that
Tim
November 6, 2020 at 10:20 pm
You lose! Go home Trump! Better yet, leave the country!
Alice
November 14, 2020 at 4:20 pm
This aged well.
Macy Goffe
November 16, 2020 at 2:38 am
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Canary Commenter
November 16, 2020 at 3:53 am
This sounds real, so it’s approved.
Ryan lloyd
August 30, 2021 at 12:45 pm
Haha L though