Happy Sunday Canary Crew! As we enter Week 15 of this NFL season I think it’s important that we all take a second to appreciate the fact that it looks like we’re about to get a full NFL season in the books. We only have 3 weeks left until playoffs so I’ll be taking some time today to plant myself in front of my TVs and take in all the NFL action I can because it’ll be done before we know it.
Week 14 for us was about my misplaced faith in Ezekiel Elliot. It ended up costing us dearly on DraftKings but on FanDuel we survived to cash 100% of our contests. I’ve definitely had more success on FanDuel this season so if you’re riding it’s best to follow there. I split my play about 60% to FD and 40% to DK so personally I’ve stayed a little ahead but not enough for my liking.
The cooler continues on gambling as we went 2-4 last week to bring our season total to 52-39 (57%). We’ve got some good lines this week though and I’m looking for a bouncback there.
WEATHER ALERTS: Nothing that will significantly affect fantasy value. Some cold drizzle/rain in Washington and Baltimore but nothing that is going to materially affect fantasy production.
I’ve been working all week to put together my lineups and we’re going to take advantage of a few changes at the RB position. I’ll hit you with THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE – These are “my guys” for the week who are common between my lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings. This is an unusual week where the lineups between sites are nearly identical except for the FLEX plays. Then I’ll let you know who I’m using to fill out each roster by site. Finally, I’ll show you my lineups. Keep in mind that I do make changes on Sunday morning if news breaks. If that happens I’ll tweet out the link to this updated article.
So make sure you follow me on Twitter @FlashlightDFS for my latest updates, last minute info, game day entertainment, seasonal or daily lineup advice or just to shoot the breeze about football.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE
Mitch Trubisky ($7000 FD/$5500 DK) – Say what you will but Mitch can put up some fantasy numbers and he gets to face off against another bottom 5 defense in the Minnesota Vikings. Since the switch back from an ineffective Nick Foles, Mitch has had 3 TD passes in 2 of 3 games and topped 240 yards in each one. He’s also a threat for some rushing yards and gives us a nice base to build our team.
Cam Akers ($6700 FD/$6600 DK) – Yeah we’re playing RB roulette with Rams coach Sean McVeigh again but I think we’ve got an edge. Over the last two weeks Akers has the undisputed RB1 seeing 50 carries and accounting for 288 total yards and a TD. He’s facing the Jets who are comically bad and should see a lot of work as the Rams grind them in to the ground.
Allen Robinson ($7300 FD/$7400 DK) – Robinson is a target monster seeing nearly 10 per game, 4th in the league. He’s coming off 3 strong weeks and will continue to command the passing looks from Mitch. The emergence of a running game in Chicago will only help to ease pressure off the passing game and will lead to more open looks for ARob.
Brandon Aiyuk ($6900 FD/$6300 DK) – Talk about target monsters…Aiyuk has seen 16, 9, 14 & 10 targets over his last 4 games and has turned that in to 100 yards or a TD in each one. The Niners face the Cowboys who have well documented issues stopping anyone really.
Emmanuel Sanders ($5500 FD/$4200 DK) – With the surprise news of star WR Michael Thomas going to IR that leads us to Sanders who will have an expanded role, gets Drew Brees back and is playing against the best offense in the league. He’ll be highly owned and for good reason.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE PLUS:
RB – Derrick Henry ($10200 FD) – You know by now that I love Henry and he’s worth every penny this week. Detroit sucks at stopping the run and Henry always turns it on late in the season. He’s got a legit chance to reach 2,000 rushing yards this season and needs to average 156/game to get there. I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t eclipse that today.
TE – TJ Hockenson ($5900 FD) – Hock is as low as I’ll go at TE with Travis Kelce on the slate. Kenny Golladay’s continued absences leaves him as a top option and even without Matt Stafford he’ll still excel and backup QB Chase Daniel peppers TE with targets.
FLEX – JK Dobbins ($5900 FD) – Dobbins is now the main RB in Baltimore but it’s still a time share. Facing the lowly Jaguars he’ll see plenty of work and I think they’ll try to keep some mileage off Lamar Jackson and utilize the RBs more.
DST – Tampa Bay Bucs ($4000 FD) – Matt Ryan has been ineffective under pressure so the Bucs will send the house to try and stop him. If game script plays true the Bucs will take a lead and go, meaning plenty of sack opportunities as Atlanta tries to come back.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE PLUS:
RB – Alvin Kamara ($7400 DK) – The news of Drew Brees’ return and Michael Thomas’ injury broke after pricing was set so we’re getting a huge discount here on Kamara who will see an increased workload especially in the passing game.
TE – Rob Gronkowski ($4200 DK) – We get Gronk at a big discount against the porous Falcons secondary. He’s a favorite red zone target and despite going 1/2/1 last week had his first 100 yards game of the season 2 weeks ago.
FLEX – TY Hilton ($5500 DK) – Hilton is suddenly back after a slow start and his price is perfect for us against a terrible Houston defense. Over the last 4 weeks he’s seen 7 targets a game and has scored 4 TD.
DST – Dallas Cowboys ($2700 DK) – We need salary relief and Dallas provides it. The 49ers have struggled on offense and turn the ball over. We don’t need much to make value here so we’ll be counting on the Dallas defensive playmakers to pay us off here.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S FAVORITE BETS
I’m still working, will post them as an update just after 12pm.
Good luck this week!