Happy Sunday Canary Crew! Welcome to Week 11 and it’s hard to believe we’re already approaching Thanksgiving! Things are are really heating up across the NFL, the NFC East is still a laughing stock and my Steelers are still undefeated; so all is right in the world. I hope you enjoyed last Sunday as much as I did. I got to watch one of my favorite golfers, Dustin Johnson, win the Masters and I got paid on that (+800!). Then we enjoyed a winning week in both DFS and gambling so it’s safe to say the ‘ol Flashlight had a good Sunday.
It was definitely a weird week in DFS as scores were insanely low due to a ton of highly owned players shitting the bed. Lucky for us I was able to find a diamond in the rough that salvaged a winning week for us on both FanDuel and DraftKings. For both sites our saving grace was Diontae Johnson who pushed us over the pay line on both sites with his 6/116/1 game. Kyler Murray was our other bright spot that kept us in it but he was no secret as he was owned in 50-85% of contests across the board. All in all we scored 99.8 points on FanDuel and cashed in on 75% of our contests with pay lines right around 99.5. On DraftKings we scored 118.6 points good for 66% wins on average pay lines of about 118. So we were right on the line but made it over in a good amount of contests. Not a clean sweep but definitely a winning week.
I got back to my winning ways in gambling last week despite adding an ill-advised teaser on Sunday morning. We went 5-2 which brings our season long total to 44-23 (65%).
WEATHER ALERTS: Philadelphia @ Cleveland
Philadelphia @ Cleveland – Surprise, surprise, the weather is shitty in Cleveland yet again! While the winds won’t be kicking up as much as last week the rain will be there and it’s going to be a cold and miserable game for the Eagles and Browns. Forecast is for rain throughout the day, winds 10-15 mph with temps int he mid 40’s. Welcome to the rust belt baby. To be honest if you’re thinking about playing either of these QBs you’re probably out of money already so for once I don’t think this weather is going to create a full fade. I’m still ok with playing WR & TE from this game and it’s full steam ahead on the running games (more on that later).
As usual first I’ll hit you with THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE – These are “my guys” for the week who are common between my lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings. This is an unusual week where the lineups between sites are nearly identical except for the FLEX plays. Then I’ll let you know who I’m using to fill out each roster by site. Finally, I’ll show you my lineups. Keep in mind that I do make changes on Sunday morning if news breaks. If that happens I’ll tweet out the link to this updated article.
So make sure you follow me on Twitter @FlashlightDFS for my latest updates, last minute info, game day entertainment, seasonal or daily lineup advice or just to shoot the breeze about football.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE
Deshaun Watson ($7700 FD/$6500 DK) – Watson is like pizza, there’s never a bad time to have it. Breakfast? Sure. Lunch, dinner, midnight snack? All yes. What I’m saying is that Watson is an easy plug and play nearly every week. Now we correctly avoided him last week due to the wind storm in Cleveland but we’re going right back to him this week against the Patriots. Watson provides us with a tremendous floor as he’s been over 300 yards in 4 of his last 6, has multiple TDs in 5 of his last 6 and is over 25 rushing yards in 5 of 6. Yeah sure, it’s the Pats defense but they’re middle of the road in most stats so I think Watson will still be able to excel.
Dalvin Cook ($10,500 FD/$9000 DK) – Crazy high priced but crazy talented and in a perfect situation as far as his team and their offensive philosophy. Dallas seems to have shown some signs of life recently on defense but I’m not worried. The Vikings offense runs through Cook and they have the offensive line and complimentary pieces to make it work, as evidenced by his production this week. I’m not going to spend much time selling you on the guy who leads the NFL in yards and TDs when he’s playing a team who is 2nd worst in the league vs. the run.
Miles Sanders ($7700 FD/$6900 DK) – I love Sanders this week against the Browns and Myles Garrett missing the game only made it more of a definite. Last week Sanders returned against the Giants who rank right next to the Browns in run defense (both top 10). He ran for 15/85 and caught 2/10 on 5 targets. Sure he missed out on a couple of TD opportunities but we’ll take advantage of that since his price didn’t jump too high. I think Garrett’s absence causes a ripple effect on the Browns defense that will allow Sanders to do a lot with the touches he gets today.
Adrian Peterson ($5100 FD/$4000 DK) – We need salary relief with the high priced guys we’re rolling this week and AP fits the bill perfectly. I was going to be 100% in on D’Andre Swift this week until he was ruled out with a concussion, so we get to plug in AP at a significant savings. This is a tasty matchup as the Panthers are giving up over 124 yards/week on the ground. The Lions have a good offensive line that should be able to create holes today and there’s definitely positive TD equity here as the coaching staff has said AP will handle early down and short yardage duties. He’s cheap and has a good matchup and should see 15+ touches, all things we’re looking for in value players.
Keenan Allen ($8000 FD/$7400 DK) – Allen bailed us out with a TD last week in a poor effort going 3/39/1 but that’s not the worst bad game stat line in the world. This week he gets to face the Jets who we all know are a disaster. Allen is in the top 12 in the NFL in Yards, TDs, catches and targets, so I’m not worried about production. The Jets cut one DB and put another on IR this week so they’re starting guys who couldn’t even see the field for the Jets. What I’m saying is that the Jets are getting worse in the secondary and Allen is the #1 offensive option for the Chargers.
Jakobi Meyers ($6000 FD/$4900 DK) – Meyers is a high end WR2 priced at WR3 levels as far as I’m concerned. In his last 4 games he’s averaged 9 targets, 6 catches and 86 yards. This week the Patriots travel to Houston to face the Texans who bleed points and yards to the opposition. Meyers has established his role in the offense and looks to have good chemistry with Cam Newton so he’s got a great opportunity this week.
Washington Football Team ($4100 FD/$2900 DK) – Washington is 5th in the league with 28 sacks and they face up on the Bengals who struggle on the offensive line. Add in that Joe Burrow struggles mightily when under pressure that brings us once again to Washington. They’ve got 16 turnovers this season and the Bengals have given up 32 sacks this season, 3rd worst in the league. I know they let us down last week but they’re in another good spot here that we can’t ignore.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE PLUS:
Wide Receiver – Diontae Johnson ($6400 FD) – We’re going right back to Johnson who rewarded us with a 6/116/1 game last week. The risk isn’t with the Jaguars who have the 3rd worst pass defense in the league by yards and are dead last in sacks with only 9. There’s only one ball and lots of mouths to feed. We’re going right back due to the amount of targets Johnson commands in this offense which is prodigious. In full games he’s played he hasn’t seen under 10 targets. In games where he sees 10+ targets Johnson is averaging 7 catches, 84 yards and .8 TD. He’s going to get his looks and against this defense he’ll be able to produce with them.
Tight End – Taysom Hill ($4500) – Don’t ask me why FanDuel has refused to change Hill’s position from TE to QB but what can you do? I anticipate nearly everyone starting Hill at TE this week on FanDuel so let’s not get cute. We’re starting a QB at TE, let’s take the points and move on.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE PLUS:
Wide Receiver – CeeDee Lamb ($5000 DK) – Lamb is explosive at the WR position and has a favorable matchup against the Vikings who rank 6th worst in pass defense and 10th worst in total points given up. In their only full game together Lamb was targeted by Andy Dalton 11 times for 7 catches and 64 yards. With a week off to work with his new QB, Lamb will be a threat in this game where I expect to see a lot of points.
Tight End – Logan Thomas ($3300 DK) – We needed a budget option and Thomas is the guy. He’s a proven commodity who will see his 4-6 targets a week and Washington QB Alex Smith has shown that he trusts Thomas. The Bengals are 7th worst in the league in terms of passing yards allowed and give up the 9th most points so there’s going to be opportunity for Thomas to produce.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S FAVORITE BETS
Can’t lie, I’ve been straight fire this NFL season going 5-2 last week for 44-23 (65%) on the year. Let’s get 6 more!
CLE/PHL un 46.5
Packers ML +108
DAL/MIN ov 49
Steelers TT ov 28.5
Good Luck this week, have fun!