Happy Sunday Canary Crew! Last week didn’t break our way in DFS as we had some key letdowns. I hope you jumped on the Flashlight Cash Train as I had another winning week on my NFL bets going 5-3.
On FanDuel we scored 118.3 points which JUST missed the average cash game pay line of about 119 points. Letdown weeks by Derrick Henry and Allen Robinson held us back along with the Davante Adams injury. Simiar results over on DraftKings as it was Henry and ARob plus injuries to Adams and Parris Campbell that cost us the cash. We scored 127.5 points on DK and cash lines were closer to 140 so it wasn’t that close over there. Dak, Jordan Reed, Jonathan Taylor were in our CORE and did well so that was a good sign. Never the less, we’re on to Week 3.
As usual first I’ll hit you with THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE – These are “my guys” for the week who are common between my lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Then I’ll let you know who I’m using to fill out each roster by site. Finally, I’ll show you my lineups. Keep in mind that I do make changes on Sunday morning if news breaks. If that happens I’ll tweet out the link to this updated article.
So make sure you follow me on Twitter @FlashlightDFS for my latest updates, last minute info, game day entertainment, seasonal or daily lineup advice or just to shoot the breeze about football.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE
Kyler Murray ($8400 FD/$6800 DK) – Murray has been off to a great start this week and he faces the hapless Lions defense who have been bleeding points. Murray has been effective as a passer throwing for 225+yds and 1 TD in each start, but his rushing upside is what we’re buying in to here. He’s got 3 rushing TD and has gone for 67 and 91 yards on the ground in his two games this year. The rushing creates a great floor for our QB and there’s potential for a big passing game as the Lions are depleted in the secondary.
Miles Sanders ($7400 FD/$6400 DK) – Despite their struggles on offense, the Eagles showed last week that Sanders is their guy and will be their featured back. Las week he saw 20 carries for 95 yards and a TD and also saw 7 targets that he turned in to 3 catches for 36 yards. The Bengals are fresh off a game where they gave up 32/210/2 on the ground and 3/34 through the air to the RB position. Sign us up.
Allen Robinson ($6900 FD/$6200 DK) – If ARob can break out against this horiffic Atlanta secondary this week then he might be dead to us. He had a down week but still saw 9 targets for his second game in a row. Atlanta has given up an average of 372 passing yards so far this season and they lost their top cover corner to COVID-19 this week so it’s all systems go for Robinson.
DK Metcalf ($6500 FD/$6500 DK) – Metcalf has games of 4/95/1 and 4/92/1 so far this season and it still feels like we’re waiting for his “breakout” game. Well this should do it as Seattle hosts the Cowboys who gave up 273/4 though the air last week. This game has shootout written all over it so we need to make sure we get a piece of the action. DK is still moderately priced so he’s our guy.
Arizona Cardinals ($3700 FD/$3300 DK) – Don’t look now but the 2nd best scoring defense in the NFL is…your Arizona Cardinals. The Cards are 3rd in the league in sacks also and face up a Lions team that is a bit of a mess. We needed value at defense this week and Arizona fits the bill there.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE PLUS:
RB – Derrick Henry ($8200) – Henry had a down week but still saw 25 carries and 2 targets. The Titans roll in to Minnesota this week to face a Vikings defense who just lost their best LB and gave up 26/101/1 last week on the ground. With how suspect the Titans defense has been I think the game plan for Mike Vrabel will be to feed Henry early and often and pound the Vikings in to submission.
RB – Jonathan Taylor ($6700) – Taylor is coming off a game where he saw lots of work on the ground with 26/101/1 and saw 2 catches for 9 yards. The Jets are a dumpster fire and I expect to see the Colts working with a lead most of the game. My feeling is that when the Colts are ahead, Taylor will get almost all the work but if they fall behind expect to see his split time with Nyheem Hines. The Colts should roll here meaning another big workload for Taylor.
WR – Terry McLaurin ($6700) – McLaurin was very impressive last week against Patrick Peterson seeing 10 targets and hauling in a 7/125/1 stat line. This week he sees the Browns who are fresh off surrendering 316/3 to a rookie in his 2nd start. McLaurin is the focal point of this passing game and he’ll be running free in the secondary today.
TE – Jordan Reed ($5300) – My faith in Reed’s talent paid off last week as he saw 8 targets, hauling in 7/50/2. With so many players missing for San Francisco this week starter Nick Mullens will look for easier completions to his safety blanket TE. Again, I’m not expecting a ton of yardage but I think there’s a very good chance of 5+ catches and a TD.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE PLUS:
RB – James Conner ($6700) – Conner looked great last week against the Broncos seeing a ton of work and turning it in to 16/106/1 on the ground and 2/15 through the air. This week he’s at him against the Texans who have been gashed through the ground giving up nearly 200 yards rushing per game so far this year. Like Jonathan Taylor this is a situation where I expect the Steelers to be playing with a lead meaning plenty of work for Connor against this lousy defense.
WR – CeeDee Lamb ($5400) – The rookie has looked electric in his two starts this season and he’s going to do it for a 3rd week in a row against the Seahawks who are giving up a ridiculous 415 passing yards a game. Pair that with the Cowboys racking up 450 yards last week, this is a recipie for a blow up. Like I said about DK Metcalf we need to have a piece of this game and Lamb is the best low priced option.
WR – Jerry Jeudy ($5000) – Another rookie, Jeudy has seen 8 & 7 targets respectively in his first two games. With the loss of Courtland Sutton, Jeudy will be stepping in to a bigger role in the offense. I don’t think Denver will be able to run much against the Bucs so there will be plenty of opportunitys for Jeudy to pay off.
TE – Logan Thomas ($5000) – Thomas gives us exposure to the Browns defense at a lower price but this isn’t a punt play. Thomas has seen 8 & 9 targets this season and is a primary read in the redzone with his big (6’6″ 250) frame. There’s going to be points scored here and Thomas gives us plenty of volume with TD upside.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S FAVORITE BETS
Solid week that could have been better but the Bills couldn’t make a 3rd down stop and we got backdoored. Last week we went 5-3 last week and are 10-5 on the season. Let’s make some money!
Bengals ML +180 (.5 unit)
Pittsburgh/Houston OVER 45
Packers ML +150
BET OF THE WEEK – Titans -2.5 (4 units)
That’s it, good luck this week!