Happy Sunday Canary Crew! Last week we took a beating on the DFS side of things. We lost it all over on DraftKings and only won about 38% of our games on FanDuel. On the bright side, my NFL Gambling picks have been blistering, going 5-2 last week to bring my season total to 21-8 (72.4%). I hope you’ve been following along both on this weekly blog as well as my Twitter.
On FanDuel we scored 121.4 points which painfully cashed us in 38% of contests. Overall pay line was basically 121.5 so we were right on the cusp of a full cash. Over on DraftKings it was a full shitting of the bed. We only scored 119.6 on an average pay line of about 136. The FLASHLIGHT’S CORE was big last week and we had SERIOUS letdown games from Darell Henderson, Logan Thomas and the Cardinals Defense. The rest of the core (Watson, Kamara, Fuller, Golladay, Boyd) did fine but nobody had a big enough day to make up for the three failures. Total disaster from those three. What did we learn from Week 4? Don’t believe anything from Sean McVeigh. Pay up at tight end. The Cardinals are frauds. We’ll remember that going forward. Now, on to Week 4.
As usual first I’ll hit you with THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE – These are “my guys” for the week who are common between my lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings. This is an unusual week where the lineups between sites are nearly identical except for the FLEX plays. Then I’ll let you know who I’m using to fill out each roster by site. Finally, I’ll show you my lineups. Keep in mind that I do make changes on Sunday morning if news breaks. If that happens I’ll tweet out the link to this updated article.
So make sure you follow me on Twitter @FlashlightDFS for my latest updates, last minute info, game day entertainment, seasonal or daily lineup advice or just to shoot the breeze about football.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($7900 FD/$6800 DK) – CEH is our workhorse this week as he faces a suspect Raiders defense. For his part CEH has averaged 21.25 touches/week in the potent Chiefs offense with only 1 TD so far this season. Vegas offers our guy the opportunity to thrive. The Raiders are giving up 138.5/yards game on the ground, 7th worst in the league. They’re also giving up 30 points/game, 8th worst in the league. This offense is going to run wild and CEH is going to have plenty of opportunities to get in the end zone this week.
James Robinson ($6600 FD/$6700 FD) – Robinson has been the lone bright spot in an otherwise depressing Jaguars offense. This play isn’t about his talent, which I think is average at best. This is about an incredible matchup with the lowly Texans who are dead last in the league in run defense (181.8 yards/game) and 6th worst in total scoring (31.5 points/game). Robinson, for his part, has been effective getting nearly 19 touches/game. This is a divisional battle and the Texans are fresh off a fired coach, so Robinson will be a major part of the game plan to take advantage of a team in transition.
Robby Anderson ($6200 FD/$5900 DK) – We all know the Falcons pass defense is an abomination: 341.5 pass yards/game and 35.4 points/game allowed. Both are good for 2nd worst in the league. Anderson is a good way to get exposure to this horrific defense and is a slight savings over his counterpart, DJ Moore. Don’t sleep on Anderson though, he’s producing like a WR1 this season. He’s getting 8.5 targets/game and averages 94.5 yards/game. Teddy is clearly comfortable throwing to him and I’m comfortable playing him against the Falcons.
Zach Pascal ($5300 FD/$4600 DK) – I rolled Pascal out last week and though he had 8 targets he only converted that in to 3/58 against the Bears in a low scoring affair. This week the Colts go to Cleveland to face the Browns who have the 3rd worst pass D in the league (310.5 yards/game) and give up plenty of points (31.5/game, 6th worst). We needed value and Pascal offers us the upside we need at this price.
George Kittle ($7100 FD/$7100 DK) – I shouldn’t have to sell Kittle too hard after his ridiculous 15/183/1 game last week but here’s the reason why I need to pay up for him this week. Miami gives up 285 yds/game through the air and their rush D is middle of the road. Kittle is the guy in San Francisco and Jimmy G will be looking for his safety blanket TE this week to get the offense back on track.
Evan Engram ($5500 FD/$4600 DK) – We need to get exposure to the Dallas defense who are giving up an unbelievable 36.5 points/game. That’s bad for the Big 12, much less the NFL. Dallas sucks against the run and the pass but I hate the Giants RB situation and I’m not really excited about Slayton or Tate at WR, so we land right here on Engram. Yes, he’s been off to a statistically poor start but he’s still seeing 7.5 targets/game and with no Sterling Shepard or Barkley (both on IR) Engram is in a great spot to flourish. In 2 games vs. the Cowboys in 2019 Engram put together a solid line of 17/164/1.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE PLUS:
QB – Lamar Jackson ($8900) – Jackson is electric and the Bengals sport one of the worst defenses in the league. They’re worse at stopping the run but they suck at defending the pass too. Luck for us as Jackson can roast them through the air or on the ground. How bad are they? How about an average line of 24.8 points, 243 pass yards and 158.5 rush yards. Yeah he was on the injury report this week but he practiced on Friday and will be a full go on Sunday.
WR – Amari Cooper ($7800) – Soft pricing on FanDuel allows us to stack up our lineup but we’ve got to make the right choices. Cooper has been nothing short of spectacular this year seeing 12.75 targets/game with an average stat line of 9.25/100/.25 so far this season. This Giants are the best defense he’s seen this year but with how bad their defense is I expect this game to shoot out giving Cooper another week with lots of targets and opportunities.
DST – Pittsburgh Steelers ($4400) – The Steelers are well rested and facing the Eagles who have well documented offensive line issues. Meanwhile the Steelers are 1st in the league in sacks averaging 5/game and have produced at least 1 turnover in all three games. The Eagles have given up an average of 3.5 sacks and 2.25 turnovers per game this season.
QB – Jimmy Garoppolo ($6700) – As referenced above, Miami is giving up 285 yards/game and Jimmy G is fresh off missing a few games due to an ankle injury. He threw for 2 TD in each game this year despite leavin the Jets game in the first half. Miami struggles to cover the pass and with the uncertainty at RB the Niners will lean on their star QB this week.
WR – Diontae Johnson ($5600) – The Eagles are giving up 26.8 points/game (12th worst) and 243.5 pass yards/game (18th in the league). On the other hand they stop the run well with the 12th BEST run defense (108.8 yards/game). That leads me to the fact that the Steelers will attack through the air. In his two full games Johnson has seen 10 & 13 targets and now he’s got another 2 weeks of practice with Big Ben. Yes, he’ll probably see coverage from Darius Slay but he should be able to handle the heat and still get his looks.
DST – Kansas City Chiefs ($3500) – Look, the Chiefs defense is actually pretty good and VERY good from a fantasy perspective. They’re averaging 3 sacks and almost 2 turnovers per game and they face the Raiders who have a -4 turnover differential so they leave a good opportunity at this price.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S FAVORITE BETS
We continued our heater last week going 5-3 bringing our season long record to 21-8 (72.4%). For those of you new to NFL gambling, that’s really good. I’ve got 7 bets for this week and here they are.
Colts – 1
Pit/Phl OV 44.5
Cin/Bal OV 51
Dal/NYG OV 54
Good luck this week!