Happy Sunday Canary Crew! I hope you didn’t lose faith after our Week 7 letdown because Week 8 was a CLEAN SWEEP on DFS and my gambling picks went 5-1 including a healthy +170 ML win on the Steelers. Basically if you followed my advice last week you more than doubled your money across the board.
On the DFS side we won 100% of cash games on both FanDuel and DraftKings thanks in part to hitting on our high priced RBs Derrick Henry on FanDuel and Alvin Kamara on DraftKings. My WR strategy proved to be effective as we paid down for Braxton Berrios who was mediocre, paid down for Brandon Aiyuk who had a very nice game and paid up for DK Metcalf who had a career day and was our catalyst for the win. We accomplished all of this while we had Jimmy “F-ing” Garopollo at QB who was benched for Nick Mullens after scoring a depressing 2.76 points. Therefore, right now on November 8, 2020 I pledge to you, the Canary Crew, that I will NEVER recommend Jimmy G under any circumstances. That is my solemn promise to you.
Gambling was another great week as we went 5-1 and pushed our season long record to 36-18. I’m on fire with my NFL picks, I don’t know what to say. I have a good feeling about today’s board also (surprise, surprise) and I’ll be looking to keep the momentum going. Either way, you’re a straight up crazy person if you don’t tail my picks each week. Just sayin.
WEATHER ALERTS: Unlike last wee there’s nothing to get super concerned with on the main slate.
As usual first I’ll hit you with THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE – These are “my guys” for the week who are common between my lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings. This is an unusual week where the lineups between sites are nearly identical except for the FLEX plays. Then I’ll let you know who I’m using to fill out each roster by site. Finally, I’ll show you my lineups. Keep in mind that I do make changes on Sunday morning if news breaks. If that happens I’ll tweet out the link to this updated article.
So make sure you follow me on Twitter @FlashlightDFS for my latest updates, last minute info, game day entertainment, seasonal or daily lineup advice or just to shoot the breeze about football.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE
Deshaun Watson ($8300 FD/$7100 DK) – Watson has been on fire as of late posting over 300 yards passing in each of his last 4 games. Over that span he’s averaged 325 yards, 3.25 TD and 24.5 rush yards. He gives us a very good floor in a great matchup this week against the floundering Jaguars who have been melting down defensively all season. Over their last 4 the Jags have given up an average game of 307.25 yards and 2 TD to opposing QBs. This has blowout game written all over it and I want us to be a part of it.
Dalvin Cook ($9300 FD/$8200 DK) – Don’t chase last week’s points, right? Well, I’m not. After embarrassing the Packers last week to the tune of 163/3 rushing and 2/63/1 receiving we’re going back to the well. Nobody wants to say it but the best way for the Vikings to win is to use Cook to hide Kirk Cousins. That’s going to be the plan again this week versus the Lions who bring a struggling run defense to the field today. The Lions give up over 130 yards a game on the ground and have given up the 2nd most fantasy points to the RB position this season including 8 rushing and 4 receiving TDs. In fact, the only team who has given up more fantasy points to opposing RBs is the Green Bay Packers, who Cook torched last week.
James Conner ($8200 FD/$6900 DK) – Speaking of bad rush defenses, guess who has the worst in the NFL? That’s right, it’s your Dallas Cowboys who give up a ridiculous 170.9 rushing yards per game. In terms of fantasy points they are 5th worst in the league but are still giving up an average of 138 yards and 1 TD PER GAME to the RB position. Conner is the bell cow in Pittsburgh and will get nearly all the run this week as the Steelers grind out another win to push their record to 8-0. Game script dictates a lot of running here and Conner will be the primary beneficiary.
DeeJay Dallas ($5100 FD/$5000 DK) – Both Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde are out leaving the RB duties to Dallas. They face the Bills who give up the 7th most yards/game on the ground (134.5) and have surrendered nearly 1100 total yards and 8 TD to the RB position this season. Dallas saw the bulk of the workload in a less than optimal match up last week against San Francisco and still managed to produce seeing 18 carries for 47 yards and 5 catches for 17 and a TD. This is a very low price to get the main RB on a high powered offense with a positive matchup.
WIDE RECEIVER (MORE LIKE SLOT RECEIVER)
Cole Beasley ($5300 FD/$5400 DK) – I’m running a heat check on myself this week with my CORE WR, can’t lie to you guys. My first slot receiver for the week is Beasly who is facing the league’s worst passing D, Seattle. This looks to be a high scoring affair in Buffalo as the Seahawks both score and give up points at an alarming rate. Josh Allen is struggling after a hot start but will need to move the ball to keep up in this game. Beasley is my favorite way to get cheap exposure to this game. This season Beasley has seen at least 6 targets in 6 of 8 games and is running nearly 90% of his routes from the slot. Buffalo targets the slot 35.1% of the time (99 targets), 4th highest in the league. Seattle on the other hand has struggled to cover slot receivers in the last two weeks giving up 8/81 and 8/62 to Kendrick Bourne and Larry Fitzgerald in their last two contests.
Randall Cobb ($5400 FD/$4500 DK) – Slot receiver #2 for the week is Cobb who has flourished in his role in the slot for Houston. He’s running nearly 80% of routes from the slot position in an offense that targets the slot a league high 40.4% of drop backs (97 targets). He’s over 5 targets in 3 of the last 4 including 10 last week. In their last contest against the Jaguars, Cobb posted a 6/6/47 stat line. In their last 3 the Jags D has given up an average stat line of 6/66 to the slot position. Cobb was part of that and he has positive touchdown upside this week as well.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE PLUS:
WIDE RECEIVER – Allen Robinson ($6900 FD) – ARob has a great matchup against the Titans who can’t generate a pass rush and therefore get their asses kicked routinely by opposing WR. In fact, over their last 4 games the AVERAGE production by opponents WR1 has been 7.75 catches for 94 yards and a TD. ARob is by far the best player on the Bears and is seeing nearly 10 targets a game. If you give Nick Foles time he’ll tear you up and that’s what is going to happen today.
TIGHT END – Noah Fant ($5800 FD) – So yes, we want to get exposure to the Falcons pass defense which is 2nd worst in the league. The Falcons actually lead the league in a defensive stat, guess what it is? Most points given up to opposing tight ends who average 6.25 catches for 66 yards and 1 TD against them. Fant is a key part of the Denver offensive scheme and has seen 10, 6, 7 & 9 targets in his last 4 full games played. He’s got big play and red zone potential and gets to face the worst defense vs. the TE in the league.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS – Pittsburgh Steelers ($5000) – It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure this out. The Steelers have arguably the best defense in the league and rank in the top 6 of nearly all statistical categories that score fantasy points. The Dallas Cowboys are a hollow shell of a team and start Garrett Gilbert at QB this week, a 29 year old journeyman who is making his first start in the NFL. That’s not going to go well, I’ll just tell you that straight up. No brainer here to start the Steelers.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE PLUS:
WIDE RECEIVER – Jerry Jeudy ($4700 DK) – We know the Falcons pass D stinks and as far as fantasy points, they’re 4th worst in the league vs. the WR position. Jeudy is an explosive rookie who has been a big part of the Broncos offense all season. He saw 10 targets last week and is in line for another good game against a much weaker opponent. Due to pricing we couldn’t fit Allen Robinson on our DK lineup so this pivot gives us a guy who’s going to see a lot of targets against a poor opponent in a game that could shoot out. He’s like ARob lite which works for me.
TIGHT END – TJ Hockenson ($5100 DK) – I don’t like to start two non-QB players from the same offense, so we’re pivoting from Fant to Hockenson this week who has a tremendous matchup against Minnesota. The Vikings give up 287.3 pass yards a game and Lions QB Matthew Stafford will play after clearing COVID protocols. In two games without #1 WR Kenny Golladay our guy Hockenson had at least 5 catches, at least 55 yards and scored once in those two games. I like his chances today against the Vikings who are struggling to stop teams through the air.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS – Arizona Cardinals ($2900 DK) – A value defense against a rookie QB starting his 2nd game where he literally didn’t do shit in his first start? Yeah, I’m good with that. The Cardinals D is totally mispriced in my opinion against a team that will struggle offensively. In their last 3 games, Arizona has kept their opponents at 10 points twice with the other game against the best offense in the league, Seattle. In those three games they’ve tallied 8 sacks and 7 turnovers.
THE FLASHLIGHTS FAVORITE BETS
Not to toot my own horn too much but we went 5-1 last week and are now at 36-18 (66.7%) and rolling. Let’s find some winners.
Houston/Jacksonville OVER 49
Baltimore/Indianapolis UNDER 48
Chicago/Tennessee OVER 47
Detroit/Minnesota OVER 51
6 way parlay pays +5122, why not?
Good luck this week!