Happy Sunday Canary Crew! I know 2020 has been a challenging year for everyone but as sports fans, today, November 15th, 2020 is something we need to cherish. I hope you are enjoying morning coverage of the Masters while we prepare for a truly unique NFL slate today with 5 games at 1pm and 6 at 4-4:25! That’s going to make this afternoon a sports extravaganza like we’ve never seen with NFL games raging as the leaders roar through the second nine in Augusta. Hopefully you put a future in on Dustin Johnson to win (+800 on Wednesday) like I did! Anyways, after a lot of shitty things this year I just want to remind us to all appreciate today as it’s a once in a lifetime sports orgy.
Speaking of orgies (stick with me here…) we had a clean sweep on DraftKings last week with a bonanza of points from three primary guys: Deshaun Watson, Dalvin Cook and Jerry Jeudy. Those three were enough to push us over the line in 100% of cash contests with 139.74 points and pay lines were about 136 of DK, pretty low for that site.
FanDuel was another story as we lost it all with my slot receiver experiment. While we had Watson and Cook, my other pay ups of James Conner and Allen Robinson only combined for 14.6 points, which ain’t gonna get it done when they eat up 25% of your salary cap. I felt a letdown game from the Steelers which is why they weren’t on my gambling card last week and apparently I forgot that the Bears are a terrible team and Nick Foles just isn’t very good. Oh well, it was a heat check that didn’t work out.
Gambling was a slight loss for us last week as we went 3-3 to bring our season long total to 39-21 (65%). The Chargers +1 was especially excruciating to watch as they had TWO chances to win (and cover) and were unable to convert on either. Alas, this is the life of a gambler.
WEATHER ALERTS: Houston @ Cleveland; Jacksonville @ Green Bay
Houston @ Cleveland – Remember two weeks ago where there was light rain and heavy winds in Cleveland? That game ended in a 16-6 victory for the visiting Raiders. Well, that weather is back in full force today as the forecast calls for temps in the mid 50’s, rain showers and sustained winds over 25 mph. That should effectively destroy the long passing game which sucks because I really liked Will Fuller and Jarvis Landry today but will now be fading the passing game totally. I was also interested in Duke Johnson on both sites but will now only use him on DK (PPR helps) as he starts in place of the injured David Johnson.
Jacksonville @ Green Bay – Forecast is temps in the low 40’s and falling throughout the day, light rain/snow showers and winds of 20-30 mph. I was fully prepared to push all in on Davante Adams but he’s VERY expensive and I’m concerned about yardage. He’s used in the short/intermediate passing game as well so he’s never a bad play but we’re going to redistribute that salary across a couple of positions to mitigate risk. I don’t think this passing game is full fade but I’m approaching with caution.
As usual first I’ll hit you with THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE – These are “my guys” for the week who are common between my lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings. This is an unusual week where the lineups between sites are nearly identical except for the FLEX plays. Then I’ll let you know who I’m using to fill out each roster by site. Finally, I’ll show you my lineups. Keep in mind that I do make changes on Sunday morning if news breaks. If that happens I’ll tweet out the link to this updated article.
So make sure you follow me on Twitter @FlashlightDFS for my latest updates, last minute info, game day entertainment, seasonal or daily lineup advice or just to shoot the breeze about football.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE
Kyler Murray ($8800 FD/$8000 DK) – It’s actually wild that I haven’t played Murray more this season. He’s become this season’s Lamar Jackson as the premier dual threat QB in the NFL. Here’s some wild stats to illustrate that: Murray has 543 yards and 8 TD rushing this season, good for 12th in yards and 3rd in TDs in the NFL (RB included!). Todd Gurley has 584 yards and 9 TD, so basically Murray is a QB with Todd Gurley rolled up in to him. As far as passing goes Murray had been effective averaging 266 yards and 2 TD per game and is a top 10 PASSER (not including rushing stats). So we’re starting two guys for the price of one here and the matchup against Buffalo isn’t as intimidating as their defense has struggled to stop the run, is middle of the road against the pass and is now missing CB Josh Norman due to Covid.
Aaron Jones ($8800 FD/$7100 DK) – Jones seems to be fully recovered from the calf issue that kept him out for a few games in October and he’s going to get plenty of work today against one of the worst defensive units in the league. The Jags are allowing 138.1 yards/game on the ground and are 6th worst in the league in fantasy points/week to the RB position. While not crippling, I do think the winds here will force more runs and short passes which are both bread and butter for Jones.
Mike Davis ($5400 FD/$4000 DK) – Davis got off to a blistering start in relief of CMC but cooled off in subsequent weeks. Now that the price is right again and CMC is out with another injury we’re back on Davis against Tampa Bay. It’s not an optimal matchup with Tampa’s defense playing well recently (except last week) but we know he’ll get all of the work this week. In relief of CMC he racked up 8 catches for 74 yards against the Bucs and my take is that the Panthers will be playing catch up today leaving Davis plenty of chances for catches and yards.
Keenan Allen ($7800 FD/$7100 DK) – Allen is a stud and kinda forgotten about since he’s on such a sad sack loser of a team in the Chargers. As their top receiver Allen is 2nd in the league in receptions and targets, 10th in yards and 13th in TDs. He’s seen double digit targets, 7+ catches, and 96+ yards or a TD in 6 of 8 games. This week he’s against the Dolphins who are in the bottom 10 of the league in fantasy points allowed to WR and are 12th worst in pass yards allowed/game.
Robert Woods ($7200 FD/$6600 DK) – Seattle’s passing defense isn’t just bad, it’s record setting bad. We’ve gotta get a bite at that apple and Woods is our guy this week to do it. Seattle’s league worst pass defense gives up 362.1 yards/game and nearly 60 fantasy points/week to opposing WR. Woods got bottled up by Chicago in week 8 but even with that he’s scored a TD in 4 of his last 6 games. We’re definitely looking for TD upside as Woods has only gone over 100 yards once this season but if there’s a week for him to go over 100 with a TD its this week against the worst defense in the league.
Diontae Johnson ($5700 FD/$5200 DK) – Oh sweet lord let this man play a full game this week. Yes he’s an injury risk but when he plays a full game this has been his average production: 12 targets, 7.25 catches, 76.5 yards, .75 TD. That’s a awesome ceiling against the Bengals who are a middle of the road pass defense in terms of fantasy points but give up 253.6 yards/game through the air, 10th worst in the league. This game has the potential for points and I like Johnson to be involved in the passing game as he usually is when healthy, which he is rolling in to this week.
Dallas Goedert ($5800 FD/$4200 DK) – Tight end has been a wasteland this season and with none of the top end TE available on the slate we’re going with Goedert who takes the lead TE role in Philadelphia. TE is a focal point of their offense but they’ve struggled with injuries to both Goedert and Zach Ertz this year. To show you how important TE in this offense here’s the average game for the Eagles TE: 10.5 targets, 6.75 catches, 65 yards. With only 3 tight end TDs this season there’s also the principle of positive regression we’re looking to take advantage of. Bottom line this is a very nice price for a very talented tight end who’s going to see plenty of work.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE PLUS:
Wide Receiver – Tyler Boyd ($6700 FD) – The Bengals have a tall order this week going to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers defense. Boyd has been having a good season as the primary WR in Cinci and has seen at least 7 targets in 6 of 8 games this season. The Steelers are a very good defense but they’re actually middle of the road against opposing WR giving up an average of nearly 38 fantasy points/game. Boyd will see plenty of looks in the intermediate passing game to keep pressure off their rookie QB and have the potential to be playing catch up all day.
Defense/Special Teams – Washington Football Team ($3800 FD) – This defense can sack the QB, with 11 over their last two games and 27 of the season (4th best). They also have generated 16 turnovers, top 10 in the league. Detroit isn’t that intimidating offensively especially without Kenny Golladay and QB Matthew Stafford has been sacked 21 times and has thrown 7 interceptions this season.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE PLUS:
Running Back – Duke Johnson ($5000 DK) – Duke revenge game! Johnson fills in as the starter this week against the Browns in a game where weather will be a factor. Wind creates issues in the long passing game, something that has been a staple for the Texans offense. With that narrative in place he actually makes sense to see plenty of touches this week coming off last week where he saw 20 touches and got in to the end zone. This will be a grind it out game and the last time the Browns played a wind game they gave up 129 yards on 31 carries to Josh Jacobs.
Defense/Special Teams – Welp, the Eagles sure do love to turn it over and give up sacks. In fact, they’re worst in the league in both with Carson Wentz having thrown a league worst 12 picks and having been sacked a league worst 32 times. In their last matchup in October the Giants got to Wentz 3 times and picked him off once. The wind is kicking a bit here in the northeast and I could see this one being ugly and that favors the Giants D.
THE FLASHLIGHTS FAVORITE BETS
Looking for a winning week as we went 3-3 in Week 9 bringing our season record to 39-21 (65%).
HOU/CLE u 45.5
CIN/PIT ov 45.5
Parlay all 6 for +4694
LAST SECOND ADD: 6.5 pt teaser -132 (Chargers +9, Packers -7)
Good luck this week!