Happy Sunday Canary Crew! We’re back baby! Clean sweep over on FanDuel last week with a rock solid 130.42 point performance. Things didn’t work out as well on DraftKings but we still cashed in 44% of contests with 139.22 points. Derrick Henry once again powered us to the cash on FanDuel with a massive 39.4 point game. On DraftKings it was Tre Burton’s 21.9 and AJ Brown’s 22.6 that kept us in the running.
My NFL Gambling picks had another medicore week going 3-4 for the second consecutive week. Hopefully you’re following me on Twitter because my NCAA Football picks were on fire yesterday going 8-4 yesterday. My NFL picks year to date are 27-16 on the season for a solid 62.7% winning rate this season.
Derrick Henry was really the catalyst for our great day over on FanDuel as well as the Giants Defense who put up 14 points on the power of a defensive TD. CORE RB plays sucked, Alexander Mattison was a disaster and David Montgomery was mediocre. At WR Chase Claypool and Calvin Ridley had solid enough days to push us over the line. The Minnesota offense was the big letdown for us on DraftKings with Matteson and Adam Thielen having bad days in the loss.
As usual first I’ll hit you with THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE – These are “my guys” for the week who are common between my lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings. This is an unusual week where the lineups between sites are nearly identical except for the FLEX plays. Then I’ll let you know who I’m using to fill out each roster by site. Finally, I’ll show you my lineups. Keep in mind that I do make changes on Sunday morning if news breaks. If that happens I’ll tweet out the link to this updated article.
So make sure you follow me on Twitter @FlashlightDFS for my latest updates, last minute info, game day entertainment, seasonal or daily lineup advice or just to shoot the breeze about football.
Matthew Stafford ($7300 FD/$6500 DK) – We’re going back to the well with Stafford even though he was a letdown last week. Look, it’s all hands on deck versus the pathetic Falcons defense who are bottom 5 in the league in passing and scoring. Atlanta is also surprisingly stout against the run holding opponents to less that 100 yards/game which is 5th best in the league. All this adds up to lots of passing for the Lions which is just what we’re looking for.
Alvin Kamara ($9300 FD/$7900 DK) – Kamara is the only show in town today with Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders both missing the game. That means we’re getting a RB1 and WR1 for the price of one player. Kamara sees 9 targets/game and should carry the rock 12-17 times so the sky is the limit against the Panthers defense who aren’t wonderful against the run (121.7 yards/game) and are giving up 23.5 points/game. Kamara will certainly be the priority for the Saints today.
DK Metcalf ($7300 FD/$7200 DK) – Everyone knows the physical talents Metcalf brings to the table (6’3″, 228lbs, 4.33 40) but he’s now become a complete receiver and it’s really impressive to watch. As for stats, Metcalf has not had game with at least 1 TD OR 100 yards and has a TD in 5 of 6 games so far in 2020. Arizona is a middle of the road defense and yes, the do have Patrick Peterson, but Metcalf has proven that he’s a clutch player who is trusted by his QB.
Kenny Golladay ($7600 FD/$6700 DK) – Like Metcalf, Golladay has either scored or had 100 yards in his 3 games this season. He has another juicy matchup this week against the Falcons who have extreme issues stopping the pass. I expect 40+ pass attempts this week for Detroit meaning we’re going to see 10 or more targets for Kenny.
Washington Football Team ($3800 FD/$2500 DK) – It’s gonna be a slop fest in our nation’s capital today as the forecast is for mid 40’s and rain. Dallas is a disaster on offense and turns out that Andy Dalton IS a significant downgrade at QB. Washington on the other hand gets after the QB (16 sacks, 9th best) and turns it over (7 int, 4th best). I like this game to be a sloppy mess and the power front 7 of Washington should overpower a injury riddled Dallas offensive line.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE PLUS:
Kareem Hunt ($7100 FD) – Hunt gets to face the Bengals who sport the 6th worst rush defense and 11th worst pass defense in the league. Cleveland comes in reeling from an ass kicking and needs a win to right the ship. I expect them to run the ball to control the game and Hunt will be the primary beneficiary. As a backup in Week 2 Hunt had a great game scoring twice and amassing 101 yards on only 12 touches. He’ll have 20+ touches this week.
James Conner ($7200 FD) – The Titans have the 7th worst rush defense and Conner is the main man in Pittsburgh. Conner has scored in all 4 of his previous games and has been over 100 rushing yards in 3 of 4. He’s also had at least 18 touches in each of his last 4 so we know he’s healthy and the primary running back for the Steelers. I like the Steelers this week so Conner should have some late rushing opportunities as well.
Mike Williams ($5900 FD) – Williams is our “value” WR this week in a very good matchup against the flailing Jaguars. He showed out in Week 5 with an 8 target game that he converted in to 5/109/2 and has show rapport with rookie QB Justin Herbert. He’s the big body, big play guy and a good play against a team that is clearly making a run for the #1 overall pick in the Jaguars.
Tyler Kroft ($4500 FD) – He’s the only man left standing after the Buffalo Tight Ends room got hit with COVID on the day Kroft was attending to the birth of his son (congrats!). He’s going to get all the TE work against the Jets who are terrible and giving up 30.8 points and 253 pass yards a game. After two tough weeks and two losses the Bills will be out for blood. In Week 1 the Bills tight ends combined for 4/61 so he should see some looks and red zone looks as well. Make no mistake, this is a price play that we’re hoping works out in our favor but I think there’s enough upside to mitigate the risk.
Gio Bernard ($4500 DK) – Gio will be the guy in Cinci with Joe Mixon missing the game due to injury. The Browns have been good at stopping the run but struggle against the pass which is where Bernard excels. Bottom line this is the opportunity to get a starting RB in at TE price so we’re taking it against the Browns who are giving up 31.2 points/game.
Todd Gurley ($6000 DK) – Unsexy but effective is the best way to describe Gurley this season. This is a prime matchup for Gurley who faces Detroit who are 4th worst in the league in rush defense. Gurley for his part is having a very solid season scoring at least 1 TD in 4 of his last 5 and finally seeing some looks in the passing game (7 catches in last two games).
Diontae Johnson ($4200 DK) – The Titans pass d is not great, 5th worst in the league at 272.8 yards/game. We’re getting tremendous value her for a guy who saw 23 targets in the two full games he’s played this year. Yes, he’s an injury concern but as long as he’s healthy he’s going to get looks in the offense and Big Ben clearly trusts him.
Hunter Henry ($4500 DK) – Look, we wanna get a piece of the Chargers offense against the Jaguars who are circling the drain. Henry has seen 7+ targets in 4 of 5 games this season and finally found the end zone in his last game against a much tougher defense. Look for Henry to get red zone looks and have a good chance to convert for a TD.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S FAVORITE BETS
3-4 last week wasn’t what we’re looking for but I didn’t think Cleveland would only be able to muster 7 points. We’re still 27-16 on the season and I think I have a good idea of two games that we’ll be invested in. Strap up!
Pittsburgh ML +108
Pittsburgh/Tennessee OVER 51
Cleveland/Cincinnati OVER 51
Green Bay -3
Good luck this week!