Happy Sunday Canary Crew! First of all, let’s get this out of the way: Last week was the worst DFS performance I’ve ever had. Basically, my only good call of the week was Robby Anderson but that was no secret, he was over 70% owned in most contests. Bottom line is I got too aggressive for cash and basically missed on everything. My deepest apologies for those of you who followed me to the poor house.
My NFL Gambling picks had a cooler week also as we went 3-4 for the weekend. Hopefully you’re following me on those weekly picks as we’re 24-12 on the season for an impressive 66.7% winning rate this season.
Usually this is the section of the blog where I break down last week’s lineups and decipher what went right and what went wrong. Well everything went wrong last week. As I mentioned above, Robby Anderson was our most successful player of the week and everyone else shit the bed. I’m feeling good about my research this week and am confident that we’ll bounce back.
As usual first I’ll hit you with THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE – These are “my guys” for the week who are common between my lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings. This is an unusual week where the lineups between sites are nearly identical except for the FLEX plays. Then I’ll let you know who I’m using to fill out each roster by site. Finally, I’ll show you my lineups. Keep in mind that I do make changes on Sunday morning if news breaks. If that happens I’ll tweet out the link to this updated article.
So make sure you follow me on Twitter @FlashlightDFS for my latest updates, last minute info, game day entertainment, seasonal or daily lineup advice or just to shoot the breeze about football.
Matthew Stafford ($7300 FD/$6300 DK) – The Lions are fresh off a bye and Stafford finally has a fully healthy Kenny Golladay at his disposal (more on that later). The Jaguars are a defensive mess giving up nearly 30 points a game and over 280 yards passing each game. At this point the Lions need to start winning to save their coach’s job and with an extra week to prepare I expect Stafford to be firing on all cylinders.
Alexander Mattison ($7000 FD/$7200 DK) – The FanDuel price is too good to ignore and he’s fairly priced on DraftKings. Mattison will be VERY highly owned but we might as well take the free square here. With Dalvin Cook OUT Mattison will assume the lead role, one he’s been very comfortable and successful with in the past. Atlanta is bleeding points (32.2/week) and giving up over 110 yards/week on the ground. He’ll be featured in the passing game as well so there’s a good floor even if he somehow doesn’t find the endzone.
David Montgomery ($5900 FD/$5800 DK) – Monty faces Carolina who has the 8th worst rushing defense in the league and he gets nearly all of the work now with Tarik Cohen out for the season. He hasn’t topped 83 yards on the ground this season but that should change this week. He provides a nice floor at this price with his usage in the passing game, seeing 8 & 6 targets in his last two games respectively.
Kenny Golladay ($7200 FD/$6200 DK) – As I mentioned above in the Quarterback section, the Jags defense sucks and they especially suck at stopping the pass. Golladay is the undisputed #1 option for Detroit and has a TD in both of his games this season. That’ll continue this week and he’s got a legit chance to go over 100 yards to boot.
Chase Claypool ($5500 FD/$5200 DK) – Before you accuse me of chasing last week’s points and being a Notre Dame and Steelers homer (I’m both) let me tell you I didn’t consider Claypool until it was announced that Diontae Johnson was ruled out of the game. We all know the rookie went bonkers last week and while we can’t expect another 100 yard and 4 TD game he’ll have plenty of opportunity today against the Browns who have the 3rd worst pass D in the league and are giving up nearly 30 points/week. I think this is going to be a shootout so let’s get exposure to the most electric playmaker on the Steelers, and maybe on either team (sorry OBJ fans).
New York Giants ($3900 FD/$3200 DK) – I know they’re 0-5 but the Giants D isn’t the biggest problem there. They’ve got a respectable 12 sacks and 7 turnovers so for this season and they get a tasty matchup today versus the Washington Football Team who are terrible offensively. How bad? They’re 3rd worst in scoring (17.8 pts/game), dead last in total yards/game (263), 4th worst in passing yards/game (210) and 2nd worst in rush yards/game (81.4). This game will be a gross disgusting mess but there won’t be many points scored.
THE FLASLIGHT’S CORE PLUS:
Derrick Henry ($9000 FD) – The Texans have the 2nd worst rush D in the league giving up 160.4 yards/game. Nobody touches the ball more than Henry who is seeing more than 27 touches a game. He’s only had one game where he had fewer than 25 carries, that’s absurd. Oh yeah, last time he faced the Texans? 32 carries for 211 yards and 3 TD. Yes please.
Calvin Ridley ($8600 FD) – Ridley is going to benefit from the return of Julio Jones this week and he’ll be able to feast on the young and inexperienced Vikings secondary. Aside from the game where he was injured, Ridley has had NO LESS THAN 109 yards receiving and has two multi score games this season. This is a smash spot in the high scoring affair. Sign us up.
Evan Engram ($5600 FD) – For whatever reason the Giants can’t figure out how to get Engram going through the air but they realize he’s a dynamic playmaker which is why he’s actually a rushing threat especially in goal line situations. He’s still getting over 6 targets a game and is facing the Washington defense who are stingy but not impossible to score on due to the ineptitude of the offense.
Adam Thielen ($7300 DK) – Look, the Falcons defense is epically bad. They’re 2nd worst in the league in both points allowed (32.2/game) and passing yards allowed (335.8/game). Thielen is a target monster (8.8/game) and has scored at least 1 TD in 4 of 5 games this season. I usually don’t recommend playing a WR and RB from the same team but this game will have plenty of points to go around so I’m not worried.
AJ Brown ($5600 DK) – Brown is a great mid-priced option this week as he’s the #1 WR on his team and is facing a weak defense in the Texans. In his return from injury last week he had a nice game against the Bills with a 7/82/1 stat line. The Texans are giving up over 28 points/game and will have to sell out to try and stop the run, which will put Brown in many single coverage situations.
Trey Burton ($3100 DK) – Punt play here with plenty of upside. Mo Alie-Cox is out this week so Burton will step in to the pass catching TE role. He’s seen 11 targets over the last two weeks and is up against the Bengals who are a middle of the road defense in terms of passing yards and scoring. Colts QB Phillip Rivers has struggled to push the ball downfield meaning the TE (Burton, in this case) will see plenty of looks at a dirt cheap price.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S FAVORITE BETS
I feel good about today’s card and we’ll be cheering for points as I love three overs today in the 6-pack. YTD we’re 24-12 in the NFL, so winning 66.7% of your bets is good in case ya didn’t know.
Texans/Titans OVER 53
Falcons/Vikings OVER 53.5
Browns/Steelers OVER 51
$10 parlay of the 6-pack (+5063) pays $506.27, so why not?
Packers +2 **
**I tweeted this out last week when the line was published. It moved to Packers -1
Good luck this week!