Week 6 NFL DFS Breakdown for FanDuel and DraftKings
Hey Canary Crew we’re back for week 6 of the 2019 NFL season. We’re looking forward to continuing our Week 5 success so here’s my Week 6 NFL DFS Breakdown for FanDuel and DraftKings.
As always, my breakdown covers the Sunday Main slate of games, so no TNF, SNF or MNF players will be covered. The bulk of the action on both sites is on the main slate so that’s why I narrow my focus.
For each position I’ll shine the flashlight on 5-8 players at different price points that I think are good plays for this week. The point of this article is to provide you with a pool of players you can build your lineups from. While there’s no magic bullet, this is the group of players that I’ll be building my lineups from. With so many different options I won’t put together a lineup in this article, though I will provide the lineup I’ll be playing on Saturday in a new post. I do that in case I find something in my research or if there is any late injury news that can affect how I build my lineups. To that point, if I end up adding or removing anyone from my list of players, I’ll be sure to update this article with that info.
Follow me on Twitter @FlashlightDFS for my latest updates, last minute info, game day entertainment and lineup advice.
I don’t break down every single player at the top. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that guys like Pat Mahomes, CMC, Julio Jones or Travis Kelce are good players. If you want to play a stud player that I don’t highlight, go for it.
Matt Ryan (8100 FD/6400 DK) – Ryan faces Arizona this week and they have been giving up points this season at an alarming rate, have 0 INT and are giving up a QBR of 116.1 this season. Matty Ice is in the top three in the league for Yards/game and TD passes/game and hasn’t yet failed to reach 300 yards. Expect big numbers in this must win game for Ryan.
Lamar Jackson (8200 FD/6900 DK) – Jackson and the Ravens have fallen back to earth these last two weeks after a blistering start but all should be forgotten with a match up against the hapless Bengals. Cincinnati is 6th worst in points allowed, 2nd worst in rush yards allowed and is giving up a QBR of 109.6. Jackson should be able to throw and run the ball with relative ease and rack up some big points along the way.
Kyler Murray (7700 FD/6500 DK) – Murray gets the Falcons and their decimated defense who just gave up Madden-like numbers to Houston last week. With his ability to run and the Falcons inability to pressure the passer (just 5 sacks) Kyler should have time to look down field to throw and take off running if he doesn’t like what he sees. Either way, we’ll take the points.
Kirk Cousins (7000 FD/5200 DK) – Forgets the Jets last week and the Eagles are giving up 324 yards/game, worst in the league. Cousins finally had a good game last week. While the Vikings offense runs through Dalvin Cook the Eagles CAN stop the run, they’re best in the NFL at only 63/yards game. That means the Vikings will need to throw to move the ball so I expect a lot of drop backs for Cousins which lead to opportunity for points.
Gardiner Minshew (6900 FD/5000 DK) – New Orleans stops the run better than the pass and their likely strategy will be to jam up Fournett and force Minshew to beat them. Minshew has shown some moxie in his starts and has some skills that make him a viable, though risky, play this week.
HIGH PRICED TALENT
Mark Ingram (7500 FD/6600 DK) – As mentioned above, the Bengals D sucks at stopping the run. Ingram is averaging 15 carries per game and nearly 17 touches. I expect this game to be a beating and if Hollywood Brown misses (looks like he will) the Harbaugh’s game plan will be run the ball until the wheels fall off. Ingram is the primary RB and will benefit from a porous Bengals defense.
Derrick Henry (6700 FD/6100 DK) – I don’t know how you sit Henry this week against Denver who gives up over 126 yards/game. Henry is 3rd in the league in carries/game (19.6) and 9th in yards/game (77.6). He’s scored at least 1 TD in 4 of 5 games and dominates carries, accounting for over 70% of rushes by the Titans. Henry is the focal point for a run heavy offense and will feast this week.
Alvin Kamara (7900 FD/8000 DK) – Kamara is only third due to price. He’s facing Jacksonville who were just shredded to pieces by CMC. Kamara is averaging over 20 touches per game and CMC only needed 25 to post up another ridiculous fantasy day. Kamara is the focus of this offense and will have opportunity versus a Jags D that ain’t what it once was.
Chris Carson (7200 FD/6000 DK) – Carson gets the Browns who were just embarrassed on national TV by the 49ers. Now, the Niners are actually good, but so are the Seahawks. Carson seems to have recovered from his case of fumble-itis early in the season and is now pacing the Seahawks offense with nearly 22 touches a game (18.8 carries, 3 receptions). He’s over 100 yards in his last two and faces the Browns who have given up 453 rushing yards in their last two.
Devonta Freeman (6600 FD/5800 DK) – Freeman isn’t getting as many carries (11.6/game) but he’s catching the ball (4.4/game) to put him at 16 touches/game. The Cardinals have a lot of trouble stopping anyone and they’re no good on the ground either. In fact, they rank in the bottom 6 in the league in yards allowed per game and also have given up catches to opposing RB.
Carlos Hyde (6000 FD/4400 DK) – Hyde has quietly been logging nearly 15 carries/game as the primary RB in Houston. The offensive line in Houston is suspect but against lesser competition Hyde has been able to find running room. Kansas City is 3rd worst in the league at stopping the run, giving up 155.8 yards/game. Indy showed last week what can happen if you can establish the run and keep Mahomes and crew off the field. I expect a heavy work load for Hyde unless things get out of hand early.
THE TOILET BOWL
Adrian Peterson (5300 FD/4500 DK) – Miami has the worst run defense in the NFL. The are worst in the league in yards per game (175.8) and TD (7). With the coaching change in Washington there’s obvious risk but interim coach Bill Callahan has said that he wants to run it so Peterson will be the beneficiary. Look, if the Redskins can’t run it against the Dolphins, they just can’t run it.
Kenyan Drake (5600 FD/4400 DK) – Miami is awful, but the Redskins suck at stopping the run too. They’re giving up 144 yards and 1.25 TD per game on the ground. Drake is a disgusting play only for GPP but someone is going to play RB for the Dolphins against this trash defense. I won’t consider him on FD but he might be worth a GPP flier on DK.
HIGH PRICED TALENT
Julio Jones (8500 FD/8000 DK) – It’s a premium match up for Julio versus the Arizona secondary who are giving up 284 yards/game and a league-worst 12 TD. Julio has been quiet the last two weeks but he’s in line for a big comeback game. Arizona hasn’t been able to stop opposing #1 WR yet this year and this week will be no different. Expect a big game.
Michael Thomas (8200 FD/7800 DK) – If you’re not going Kamara, Thomas is the way to get exposure to the Jags D. Thomas has been an absolute target monster this year averaging a 11/9/108/.06 stat line this season. That’s insane! His baseline on FD is 15.2 points, and if he gets a TD he’s over 20. Great floor built in for Thomas, though if you’re nervous about a Jaylon Ramsey shadow then Kamara is the way to go.
Tyreek Hill (7400 FD/6900 DK) – If he’s back from injury he’s a great start against Houston who haven’t stopped many passing attacks this year. Hill is a burner who can get over the top and pairs perfectly with Mahomes big arm. If he plays he’s a great play and this might be the cheapest price we get him at all year. Keep an eye on his injury status though.
Stefon Diggs (5800 FD/5900 DK) – Diggs is clearly the 3rd wheel in Minnesota behind Cook and Thielen. However, this is a good spot for him. Eagles D coordinator Jim Schwartz is smart and knows he can’t let Cook or Thielen beat him. However, you can’t cover everyone which leaves us with Diggs. The last time Philly focused on a WR was week 5 when they shut down Kenny Golladay while Marvin Jones feasted. If Schwartz sets a similar scheme he’ll challenge Cousins to beat him via Diggs while covering up Cook and Thielen. There’s risk but I think it’s good risk.
Dede Westbrook (5400 FD/5100 DK) – Last week Chris Godwin melted the Saints secondary to the tune of 7/125/2. Two weeks earlier Tyler Lockett had 11/154/1. Godwin and Lockett play in the slot. Who plays slot for Jacksonville? You guessed it, Dede Westbrook. Westbrook struggled in Week 2 but outside of that has had at least 6 targets, 5 catches and either 46 yards or a TD each week.
Christian Kirk (5600 FD/5200 DK) – Last week Will Fuller made a mockery of the Atlanta secondary going for 14/217/3. Kirk is the speed guy in Arizona but he’s been nursing an injured ankle so we’ll have to keep an eye on his status for Sunday. If he goes, he’s a great option to get exposure to the most injured and least skilled secondary in the NFL.
Terry McLaurin (6400 FD/6000 DK) – Terry SHOULD be a much better option but the uncertainty surrounding the Redskins makes him a slightly risky play. We all know Miami sucks but did you know that the rookie leads the Redskins in all major receiving stats? He’s getting nearly 8 targets, 5 catches and 77 yards per game and has scored a TD in 3 of 4 games this year. He’s the clear #1 in Washington.
Larry Fitzgerald (5600 FD/6100 DK) – Old man Fitz is plugging along and producing yet again in fantasy football. Atlanta’s secondary sucks, their full on injury issues and are several deep on their roster. Larry is a security blanket for his rookie QB getting 8.8 targets per game. Against a depleted secondary, 9 targets should be plenty for a productive fantasy day.
RISKY BUSINESS IN KANSAS CITY
Byron Pringle (4500 FD/3500 DK) – GPP ONLY IF TYREEK HILL AND SAMMY WATKINS ARE OUT. Somebody besides Kelce will catch the ball. Last week it was Pringle who stepped in for Watkins and went 6/106/1. Bottom line here is that it’s going to be Pringle, Mecole Hardman or Demarcus Robinson if Tyreek and Watkins miss. The issue is that nobody knows. That’s why Pringle, cheapest of the bunch, is a good GPP chance to take if those two guys miss.
Austin Hooper (6400 FD/5000 DK) – Choo Choo! All aboard the “Arizona Can’t Stop the TE” train! After a brief hiatus last week where Tyler Eifer did squat we’re back on this analysis and Hooper is in an obvious smash spot. Hooper leads the Falcons is catches and yards and is 2nd behind only Julio Jones in targets. Hooper is vital piece of this offense and the Cardinals haven’t had an answer for opposing TE. He’ll be popular but for good reason.
Zach Ertz (6600 FD/5400 DK) – Ertz is in a great spot versus the Vikings. While Alshon Jeffrey is tied up all day with Xavier Rhodes, Ertz will run free in the middle of the Vikings secondary. Minnesota has only faced two quality tight ends so far this season. Their stat lines? Austin Hooper went 9/77 and Darren Waller went 14/134. Meanwhile, Ertz leads the Eagles in every meaningful receiving stat except TDs.
Travis Kelce (7500 FD/7000 DK) – Kelce has been priced well above his peers at TE all season and only paid off in Week 2, so people may hesitate to roster him due to price. If you pass on him you might miss a blow up, Houston doesn’t have a LB or S that can cover Kelce. Mahomes can pass against anyone and Houston is a bottom 10 pass defense statistically. I like Kelce even better if Tyreek plays.
George Kittle (6500 FD/5200 DK) – Kittle leads the Niners in targets, catches and yards. He’s only got 1 TD so far but he’s as reliable a target as you’ll find at TE. The Rams are middle of the road in pass coverage and Kittle has averaged 4.8/88.8/.5 per game in 4 games versus the Rams. He’s the #1 receiving option in SF and if the game shoots out at all he’ll be a big part of it.
Mark Andrews (6300 FD/4800 DK) – Cincinnati’s defensive woes have been well documented and Andrews leads the Ravens in targets and catches, has 3 TD and is only 1 yards behind Hollywood Brown, who looks doubtful to play. Andrews is questionable himself but if he goes he’s a great start. He hasn’t had fewer than 7 targets in a game and certainly has potential for 100+ yards and a TD.
Dallas Cowboys (5000 FD/4300 DK) – It doesn’t take much analysis to start a defense versus the Jets, who are terrible offensively. Dallas is middle of the road on sacks and towards the bottom of the league in turnovers, but the Jets match up can’t be ignored.
Tennessee Titans (4700 FD/2900 DK) – The Titans Defense is stout and they face off against the Broncos who have given up 14 sacks in 5 games. Tennessee can get to the QB, they’re 4th in the league averaging 3.4 sacks/game. With sacks come pressure and turnover potential.
Baltimore Ravens (5000 FD/4100 DK) – Again, Cincinatti’s struggles are well documented. The Ravens get a Bengals team reeling from an OT loss and still searching for their first win. While Cinci put up some yards last week it was a 4th quarter frenzy that did it, their offense was stagnant most of the game.
Minnesota Vikings (3600 FD/2600 DK) – Minnesota’s defense has been good this year, they’re getting 3 sacks and 1.4 turnovers per game. The Eagles offense has been hobbled by the loss of DeSean Jackson and is pretty average honestly, ranking 24th in overall yards.
San Francisco 49ers (3500 FD/2700 DK) – San Fran looked like world beaters on MNF against the Browns. The Rams offense hasn’t hit their stride and now Todd Gurley is doubtful. San Fran can rush the passer, they average 3.25 sacks/game. It’s a nice discount for a team who will be looking to bury a divisional opponent.
New York Jets (3100 FD/1500 DK) – Best suited for GPP but there’s a world where the Jets D has a good game this week against the Cowboys. DraftKings is basically DARING us to use them. Look, Dallas will be missing at least 1 if not BOTH of their starting offensive T and the strength of this team is it’s offensive line. I think this game gets ugly and I can see a 10-3 final or something like that. The Jets have generated turnovers this season and with the O Line injuries could get home for a few sacks. It’s risky but not as crazy as it sounds.
That wraps up the Week 6 Breakdown Canary Crew. I’ll post up lineups Saturday evening or Sunday morning.