Happy Sunday Canary Crew! Well not our best week as we were shut out on both FanDuel and DraftKings last week. Our DK lineup processed worked out but we ended up on the wrong side of the Seattle wide receiver situation and cash lines were CRAZY high on DK due to a couple of highly owned players going off. Davante Adams was 45% owned and Kyler Murray was 53%. Those two combined for nearly 100 points which set an incredibly high baseline. That led to our lineup scoring 163 points but cash lines above 200 points in most contests! We usually try to shoot for 155+ points a week on DK so while our process fielded a productive lineup, it wasn’t a winner.
FD was a product of missing out on those two players as well combined with DK Metcalf having no real production. On FD ownership was even higher for Murray (61%) and still significant for Adams (28%). Bottom line is we were mediocre on a week when chalky players went off. Hard to win when that happens.
The good news is that my NFL Gambling picks smashed again last week going 4-1-1 for the week bringing our season long record to a pretty damn good 31-17 64.5% with 2 pushes. I’ve got some plays this week that should keep our heater going so make sure to follow all the way to the bottom of the post to see them.
WEATHER ALERTS: We’ve got inclement weather affecting SEVERAL games today that would generally be the main focus of our lineups. I’m going FULL FADE on some of these passing games due to the poor weather. Generally speaking the weather in the upper mid west is going to be cold, windy, gusty and rainy which is a terrible combination for passing and kicking games. Green Bay/Minnesota, New Orleans/Chicago, Las Vegas/Cleveland, New England/Buffalo are the cities that are most affected with each one facing 25+mph winds, temps below 45 degrees and rain/snow in Cleveland and Buffalo.
As usual first I’ll hit you with THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE – These are “my guys” for the week who are common between my lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings. This is an unusual week where the lineups between sites are nearly identical except for the FLEX plays. Then I’ll let you know who I’m using to fill out each roster by site. Finally, I’ll show you my lineups. Keep in mind that I do make changes on Sunday morning if news breaks. If that happens I’ll tweet out the link to this updated article.
So make sure you follow me on Twitter @FlashlightDFS for my latest updates, last minute info, game day entertainment, seasonal or daily lineup advice or just to shoot the breeze about football.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE
QUARTERBACK
Jimmy Garoppolo ($6600 FD/$5900 DK) – With many of our mid-priced QB’s playing in weather affected cities, we’re going to Jimmy G this week despite the fact that he screwed us over a couple of weeks ago. Don’t think that we’re just buying down to avoid the wind though. Seattle gives up a league-worst 368.7 passing yards/game and since his return from a high ankle sprain he’s thrown for an average of 272.5 yards/game and 1.5 scores. That leads us to tremendous value here for our QB who could easily surpass 300/2 this afternoon.
RUNNING BACK
Kareem Hunt ($8200 FD/$6900 DK) – Here’s play #1 from a weather game. Hunt touched the ball 21 times last week versus the Bengals and turned that in to 102 total yards and a TD. The Raiders are middle of the road vs. the run (119.6 yards/game, 17th in the league). Hunt is going to get a lot of work today as the winds will seriously hinder the long passing game giving our guy plenty of rushing opportunities as well as looks in the short passing game.
Jamaal Williams ($7000 FD/$6100 DK) – Williams gets the nod again this week as lead Packers RB Aaron Jones sits out with a calf injury. Williams saw 19 carries and 4 catches last week for a total of 114 yards and 1 TD. The wind will be an annoyance but not a killer factor like in Cleveland but Williams is still going to get a lot of touches against a struggling defense that gave up 128 total yards and 1 TD to the RB position in their Week 1 matchup.
WIDE RECEIVER
DK Metcalf ($7800 FD/$7500 DK) – We’re going right back to the well that ran dry last week with Metcalf. Yes, he was certainly the wrong guy last week but he’s in line with another good matchup against San Francisco’s cornerbacks this week. Even with last week’s poor game Metcalf is still good for plenty of targets and outside of last week’s letdown he’s had either 100 yards or 1 TD in every single game.
Brandon Aiyuk ($5900 FD/$5800 DK) – We already know that Seattle can’t stop the pass so Aiyuk gives us exposure on the receiving end of things. The rookie has been a big part of this offense and should continue to see volume especially with Deebo Samuel missing the game. He went off last week vs. New England and should see relaxed coverages as Seattle tries to stop All Pro tight end George Kittle.
Braxton Berrios ($4700 FD/$3500 DK) – We’ve got to find value with our high priced RB plays this week and Berrios fits the bill. In two games where Jamison Crowder was out, Berrios saw 12 targets that he turned in to 10 catches for 123 yards and 2 TD. Crowder is missing today and they’ll be playing from behind all day against the Chiefs, meaning it’s reasonable to expect a high volume of passes of which Berrios will get his share.
TIGHT END
Trey Burton ($5300 FD/$3500 DK) – Again on the search for value we land at Burton who has planted himself as the main tight end option in Indianapolis. Burton broke out against the Bengals before last week’s bye and has seen at least 5 targets in each of his 3 games this season. Indianapolis HC Frank Reich believes in Burton’s talents and is looking to incorporate him in to the offense that needs a jolt in the passing game.
FANDUEL
THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE PLUS:
Derrick Henry ($9500 FD) – If you’ve followed me at all this season you know by now that I’m obsessed with Derrick Henry. Give me Henry in a good matchup verus the 5th worst rush D in the league and you know I’m all in. Henry leads the league in carries and yards and has scored 7 TD in 6 games this season. Cincinatti gives up over 130 rushing yards/game so this is a positive matchup and game script for the most productive RB in the league.
Kansas City Chiefs ($5000 FD) – Boy oh boy do the Jets stink. The Chiefs have a big opportunity for defensive success here and they’ve been doing well recently logging 6 sacks, 10 turnovers and 3 TD over their last 4 games.
DRAFTKINGS
THE FLASHLIGHT’S CORE PLUS:
Alvin Kamara ($8200 DK) – Kamara gets the nod over Henry due to full point PPR on DraftKings. Kamara will once again have a huge role in the passing game today as the Saints play without their top two receivers (Michael Thomas and Manny Sanders). Kamara is a points factory seeing 12.5 carries and nearly 8 catches a game giving us the baseline we need along with tremendous TD upside in a game that will be wind affected.
Indianapolis Colts ($3100 DK) – Indy is fresh off a bye and retuns All Pro LB Darius Leonard to shore up the middle of the defense. Detroit is a bottom 10 offense in terms of yards and middle of the road in total points. This should be a slower game as Indy tries to grind the clock so I don’t expect a high score and Detroit may be passing to catch up towards the end of the game allowing the Colts to hawk the ball, a big reason why they lead the league with 10 interceptions this season.
THE FLASHLIGHT’S FAVORITE BETS
We’re following up on a very good weekend with 6 more bets I love for today. Let’s find some winners.
Steelers +4
Steelers ML +170
Raiders/Browns under 47.5
Packers -6
Titans/Bengals over 49.5
Bengals +6.5
Good Luck this week!
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