Greetings Canary Crew! It’s hard to believe that we’re already in Week 10 of the 2019 NFL season, but here we are. Stay tuned for my free Week 10 NFL DFS breakdown for FanDuel and DraftKings.
Quick reaction to last week’s results…
Week 9 didn’t go our way but it’s wasn’t for lack of effort or analysis. On FanDuel where I play a majority of my contests each week, my cash lineup scored 149.96 points which was awesome, right? NOPE. It cashed in only 12.5% of contests which was super frustrating considering this score would have cashed in 7 of 8 previous weeks. The difference on FD was monster games by two highly owned players: Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett. In retrospect I don’t mind Wilson because I was planning on paying down at QB, but Lockett stings because he was in my research as a good option (he was my top WR in my “Other Plays to Consider” section, see below).
I opted instead for Golladay who had a really nice game (21.2 pts) but we came up about 1-5 points short of the cash lines. Lockett scored 33.7 for a delta of 12.5 points which would have put us safely over the line in 100% of contests. It wasn’t close over on DraftKings, my cash lineup scored only 122.16. Letdown players were Golladay, Cook, and Aaron Jones.
To add insult to injury, the Jacoby Brisset injury cost me a 10 unit bet on the Colts vs. the Steelers last week. The Colts stil had a field goal to win it but Vinateri missed badly and the Steelers ended up winning. It was hard for me to know how to feel about that since I’m a Steelers fan and I felt like a Judas betting against them and it helped to soften the blow of losing the bet.
Alas, those are the breaks in sports gambling and DFS. Lucky for us the beauty of the game is that we move on to the next week, and here we are.
As always, my breakdown covers the Sunday Main slate of games, so no TNF, SNF or MNF players will be covered. The bulk of the action on both sites is on the main slate so that’s why I narrow my focus.
I’m going highlight fewer players this week to help you understand why I’m high on everyone below. For each position I’ll include 1-3 more plays that I like but didn’t fit in the lineups. The point of this article is to provide you with a pool of players you can build your lineups from. While there’s no magic bullet, this is the group of players that I’ll be building my lineups from. With so many different options I won’t put together a lineup in this article, though I will provide the lineup I’ll be playing on Saturday in a new post. I do that in case I find something in my research or if there is any late injury news that can affect how I build my lineups. To that point, if I end up adding or removing anyone from my list of players, I’ll be sure to update this article with that info.
Are you bored? Give me a follow on Twitter @FlashlightDFS where you can connect with me regarding DFS or seasonal fantasy football.
Here’s your weekly reminder that these are the players I found through my research process that I believe will give us an edge on Sunday. I can’t write up every star player, so if you want to play a stud that I don’t write up go for it.
QUARTERBACK
FLASHLIGHT’S FAVORITES
Drew Brees (8300 FD/6700 DK) – Gets Atlanta who have the worst pass defense in the league. Came back last week with a casual 373/3 performance.
Lamar Jackson (8600 FD/7300 DK) – Faces the Bengals who he lit up in Week 6 for 236/0 passing at 19/152/1 rushing.
Matt Ryan (7500 FD/6100 DK) – Ryan returns from injury this week and his price has slipped. Ryan is averaging 301/2.14 per game and that includes his injury game where he went 159/0. New Orleans has a top 5 run defense so Atlanta will have to pass to keep up with the Saints who should shred the Falcons secondary.
Jameis Winston (7900 FD/6800 DK) – Excellent match up for Winston vs. Arizona who are a bottom 3 pass defense. Winston, despite hilarious turnovers, has been producing this season and is averaging 300/2 per game.
OTHER PLAYS TO CONSIDER
Kyler Murray (7700 FD/6500 DK) – Murray faces Tampa who have a top 5 Run D and and a bottom 3 Pass D. While he’s always a threat to take off and run, Muarry is going to be counted on to throw the ball to win this game. He’s show the ability to put up big games with this arm, but I’m wary of the DE/LB talent in Tampa that could limit his rushing upside.
Matt Ryan (7500 FD/6100 DK) – Ryan returns from injury this week and his price has slipped. Ryan is averaging 301/2.14 per game and that includes his injury game where he went 159/0. New Orleans has a top 5 run defense so Atlanta will have to pass to keep up with the Saints who should shred the Falcons secondary.
RUNNING BACK
First, let’s talk about Christian McCaffrey (10500 FD/10500 DK). The price keeps going up but CMC keeps producing. He’s in a plus matchup this week as the Packers have been susceptible to the run. It’s nice to have a good match up but McCaffrey is on pace for a record setting campaign. It’s your choice to play him or not play him. He’s so expensive this week that I’m fading him in cash games to fit in Brees & Michael Thomas but he is never a bad play. I will 100% play him in GPP lineups this week but as for how I’m structuring my cash lineups, he doesn’t fit.
FLASHLIGHT’S FAVORITES
David Montgomery (6400 FD/5300 DK) – The Bears season is in shambles but the emergence of Montgomery over the last few weeks has been a breath of fresh air. He’s completely taken over the Chicago backfield and has produced 175/3 on the ground and 7/48/0 receiving. He faces Detroit who give up 136/1 per game on the ground
Devin Singletary (6700 FD/5000 DK) – Very cheap on DK and a good budget option on FD. Singletary has taken control of the Buffalo backfield as father time seems to have finally caught up with Frank Gore. With 23 touches last week he was the focal point of the Bills running game. Cleveland has one of the worst run defenses in the league so Singletary should have room to work this week.
Nick Chubb (7900 FD/7000 DK) – I’m not worried about the return of Kareem Hunt. Chubb is a complete savage with at least 20 carries in 6 of his last 7. He’s getting about 3 catches per game as well and will be a big part of an absolute must-win situation in Cleveland. Buffalo is only 20th in the league vs. the run so Chubb should get the ball early and often as the Brown try to salvage a severely damaged season.
Marlon Mack (7400 FD/7000 DK) – Miami is the 2nd worst rush D in the league. Mack has averaged nearly 20 carries a game this season and is over 18 in 6 of 8. Miami is surrendering 150/1 per game on the ground. Mack has 78.7% of RB rush attempts this season so we don’t need to worry about timeshare and the Colts are 4th in the NFL with 30.6 rush attempts/game. With Jacoby Brisset either injured or out the Colts will likely run the ball a lot to protect their QB situation.
Jaylon Samuel (6200 FD/6300 DK) – 13/73 as a reciever last week but only 8/10 rushing. Neither is likely to replicate, so we’ll see fewer catches and more rushing yards. Conner is out so Samuel will get similar usage. I like him on DK better where the full point PPR helps more but he is ABSOLUTELY in play on FD.
OTHER PLAYS TO CONSIDER
Aaron Jones (7600 FD/7400 DK) – Could see lower ownership with a stinker last week and the spectre of splitting time with Jamaa Williams. I’m going to hit him in GPP’s where the opportunity vs. the weak Carolina Run D could produce another blow up game.
Alvin Kamara (8300 FD/8200 DK) – Back from injury versus the Falcons. Don’t forget about him…
Derrick Henry (7000 FD/6400 DK) – Henry comes off a nice game where he got almost all his production in the 2nd half when idiot coach Mike Vrabel realized his best offensive player had barely touched the ball. If Vrabel has any brain power left at all he’ll realize that Tennesse MUST run the ball and keep Pat Mahomes & Crew off the field. Luckily the Chiefs are a bottom 5 rush D and the O Line is a strength for Tennessee. Henry commands the backfield in Tennessee and should be able to pound away for another good game. I like him more on FD because he’s not very involved in the passing game.
Jamaal Williams (5600 FD/5200 DK) – Has at least 1 TD in 4 straight and 1 TD in 5 of 7 games this year. Doesn’t seem to need many touches to produce and at this price only needs a TD and 50 total yards to pay off.
WIDE RECIEVER
FLASHLIGHT’S FAVORITES
Michael Thomas (8700 FD/8300 DK) – Thomas is basically the CMC of wide receivers this season. Over his last 4 he’s not seen fewer than 11 targets, hasn’t had fewer than 8 catches or less than 89 yards. That’s a worst case sceneario of 12.9 FD points or 16.9 DK points. Atlanta’s pass D is abysmal, we’ve been picking on them all year. I’m 100% in on Thomas.
Chris Godwin (8200 FD/7400 DK) – Yeah I’m going back to Godwin after he cost us $$$ last week. Why? Mike Evans will be shadowed by Patrick Peterson leaving Godwin to run free over the middle of the field. The last time Evans caught a shadow from a top corner was Week 5 vs. the Saints and Godwin posted 7/125/2.
Calvin Ridley (5300 FD/5400 DK) – All signs point to production for Ridley who torched the Saints D for 15/239/4 in two games last season. Mohammed Sanu is gone leaving Ridley to get over 80% of snaps last week. Julio Jones will lock horns with Marshawn Lattimore leaving Ridely to run free. See Godwin, Chris above for how the slot guy does vs. the Saints.
Golden Tate (6300 FD/5900 DK) – Tate has had at least 6 catches in his last 4 games. With Sterline Shepard and Evan Engram out that leaves a lot of targets available and Tate will get some of them. The Jets don’t do well vs. slot recievers and Tate has carved out his career in that role.
Zach Pascal (6400 FD/5300 DK) – Pascal is kinda the last man standing of the Indy WR corps. He showed good chemistry with Brian Hoyer last week and gets the Dolphins who are pretty much awful at football and have given up 19 TD via the pass this season. I expect Pascal to get another 6-8 targets this week.
Christian Kirk (5700 FD/5200 DK) – He’s gonna be popular this week as he’s the best WR in Arizona and they face Tampa Bay who are one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Tampa does stop the run very well (#1 in NFL) which will force a lot of passing. Kirk can go deep but has also been a target monster getting nearly 9 per game. Either way, AZ will have to pass to move the ball and Kirk will be the lead WR in that effort.
OTHER PLAYS TO CONSIDER
Julio Jones (7900 FD/7500 DK) – Will be low owned due to the cheap price on Ridley and Marshawn Lattimore match up. But Julio is a star because he can beat anyone. His last 5 vs. the Saints have averaged 7/117 but only 1 TD.
Tyreek Hill (8000 FD/7700 DK) – Mahomes is back. Tennesse just lost their best corner to injury. Bombs away.
Robby Anderson (5900 FD/4700 DK) – A bust last week, his QB situation is really bad. But I’ve resigned myself to play him every week in GPPs until he pays me off.
TIGHT END
FLASHLIGHT’S FAVORITES
Austin Hooper (6600 FD/5500 DK) – Hooper is TE1 so far this year averaging 6.5 catches for 74 yards per game. He’s done A LOT of damage during garbage time and if this game goes like the experts think there will be plenty of that. If you’re not playing Julio or Ridley, Hooper is a great way to get exposure to the Atlanta offense.
Jack Doyle (5200 FD/3600 DK) – I hate TE this week, there’s nobody to get excited about so I’m trying to find a low priced option with good TD upside. Doyle fits the bill as he faces the Dolphins, has been playing the majority (70%) of snaps, and will be looked at as a security blanket for Hoyer.
OTHER PLAYS TO CONSIDER
Jason Kelce (6700 FD/6400 DK) – Kelce is always in play and will benefit from the return of Mahomes. This offense now has all it’s pieces and should click once again. He’s expensive though, and for a guy with only 1 game above 14.3 points this season I’m going in other directions.
OJ Howard (5000 FD/3300 DK) – Back from injury Howard is a dart throw vs. Arizona who struggle to stop athletic TE who play from the slot. This is GPP only, but Howard’s season has been nothing short of a disaster and this is his chance to redeem himself.
DEFENSE
FLASHLIGHT’S FAVORIES
Baltimore Ravens (5000 FD/4000 DK) – After a great performance last week vs. the Patriots they get the 0-8 Bengals who are rolling out a rookie QB. Should be fine for the Bengals, right?
Indianapolis Colts (4900 FD/3500 DK) – The Colts this week fit the “Anyone vs. the Dolphins” mantra. Indy has been playing pretty well as a unit and if they can add a couple turnovers to their 2.5 sacks/game they’ll score well.
Pittsburgh Steelers (4100 FD/2600 DK) – The Steelers D has been tough all season and they get the Rams in Pittsburgh this week. While it’s not the best matchup, they’re getting nearly 4 sacks and 3 turnovers per game and Jared Goff has been known to turn it over.
OTHER PLAYS TO CONSIDER
Buffalo Bills (4500 FD/2900 DK) – Cleveland sure does like to turn the ball over. Mayfield has 15 (12 int/3 fum) himself.
Ok that’s it. Lineups to follow! Good luck this week!
Subscribe to Coal Region Canary
Get email updates from Coal Region Canary by becoming a subscriber today. Just enter your email address below to get started!Support Coal Region Canary
Like our reporting and want to support truly local news in Schuylkill County? Your small donations help. For as little as $5, your contribution will allow us to cover more news that directly affects you. Consider donating today by hitting the big yellow button below ...