Hey Canary Crew we’re back for Week 9 of the 2019 NFL season. We’re looking forward to continuing our Week 8 success so here’s my Week 9 NFL DFS Breakdown for FanDuel and DraftKings.
In Week 8 we hit the money in 100% of our cash games on both sites. Over on FanDuel it was Deshaun Watson, Kenny Golladay and Jonnu Smith that made the difference. On DraftKings we swapped Matt Stafford in at QB and hit on Golladay and Jonnu and used the salary savings for the Pats DEF. All in all it was another 100% winning week and brings our FD record to 5-3 and DK to 4-4.
As always, my breakdown covers the Sunday Main slate of games, so no TNF, SNF or MNF players will be covered. The bulk of the action on both sites is on the main slate so that’s why I narrow my focus.
I’m going highlight fewer players this week to help you understand why I’m high on everyone below. For each position I’ll include 1-3 more plays that I like but didn’t fit in the lineups. The point of this article is to provide you with a pool of players you can build your lineups from. While there’s no magic bullet, this is the group of players that I’ll be building my lineups from. With so many different options I won’t put together a lineup in this article, though I will provide the lineup I’ll be playing on Saturday in a new post. I do that in case I find something in my research or if there is any late injury news that can affect how I build my lineups. To that point, if I end up adding or removing anyone from my list of players, I’ll be sure to update this article with that info.
Are you bored? Give me a follow on Twitter @FlashlightDFS where you can connect with me regarding DFS or seasonal fantasy football.
Here’s your weekly reminder that these are the players I found through my research process that I believe will give us an edge on Sunday. I can’t write up every star player, so if you want to play a stud that I don’t write up go for it.
QUARTERBACK
Derek Carr (7300 FD/5500 DK) – We need some salary savings at QB and Carr is the best option. Detroit gives up a league worst 290 yards/game and has injury issues to their two top CB and they traded their best S a couple of weeks ago. While Carr hasn’t topped 38 pass attempts yet this year he’s averaging 249/2 over his last 4 games which is plenty to pay off his salary. Oakland’s pass defense is just as bad as (if not worse than) Detroit’s so there’s a fair chance that this game shoots out which adds value to Carr.
Matthew Stafford (7900 FD/6800 DK) – Stafford has been on fire lately averaging 315/2.5 over his last 4. Oakland’s pass defense is a bottom 5 unit giving up 285/2.7 per game so it looks like the stars align here for another quality start for Stafford. He’d be my #1 but the pricing doesn’t work for the other parts below, so he slips to 2.
OTHER PLAYS TO CONSIDER
Russel Wilson (8600 FD/7100 DK) – Russ is the actual #1 option this week but his price is too high for my builds. Tampa is tough vs. the run but a bottom 3 vs. the pass. Russ is playing great football this season and there’s definite potential for a blow up week.
Aaron Rodgers (8100 FD/6900 DK) – Rodgers is playing at a very high level against a Chargers Defense that is reeling from injuries. They have NINE defensive players listed on their injury report which is a problem. Over his last three games Rodgers is averaging 339/3.33, an insane pace that he can keep up this week. Again, price is too high for my builds this week.
RUNNING BACK
Dalvin Cook (9000 FD/9500 DK) – In Cook and the Vikings you get the best rushing attack in the NFL. They face the Chiefs who have a bottom 3 rush defense and are giving up an average of 145/1.5 per game. This has smash spot written all over it and Cook will be in 100% of my cash lineups.
Christian McCaffrey (9700 FD/10000 DK) – This price is tough to deal with on DK but on FD we can make it work. Look, if you want to be the psychopath that doesn’t play CMC go ahead but I won’t be that guy. CMC is 100% of this offense and is on pace for a record setting campaign. CMC’s average game thus far: 105/1.14 rushing and 5.5/49/.28 receiving. Tennesse’s defense is good but they do give up catches to the RB at a high rate so Dairy Sanders will be in my FD lineup this week again.
Jaylon Samuels (5000 FD/4000 DK) – James Conner is now Doubtful and Benny Snell is out leaving the Pittsburgh backfield to Samuels who is back after a month long absence to address a knee issue. You can’t beat the prices for a starting RB and the match up against Indy is favorable. He’s probably going to be over 85% owned in cash games so let’s take the free square here and move on.
Aaron Jones (7700 FD/7000 DK) – Jones faces the busted up Chargers defense who are giving up 123/game on the ground. What I love most about Jones is his pass catching ability which makes him a great play on DraftKings where it’s 1 point/catch. Jones may go overlooked a little with Cook/CMC and people are always wary of him losing touches to Jamaal Williams but he’s still the lead guy in Green Bay.
OTHER PLAYS TO CONSIDER
Le’veon Bell (7000 FD/7700 DK) – He’s a bell cow back against Miami and this Jets team is desperate for some positive momentum. Miami is worst in the league vs. the run and equally bad against the pass making this the ultimate “get right” game for Bell and the Jets. While he didn’t fit in the cash builds there’s a 100% chance he’ll make some of my GPP lineups.
Nick Chubb (8100 FD/7300 DK) – Chubb averages 105/.85 per game and the Browns are in a must win situation in Denver. Chubb is a work horse and hasn’t had fewer than 17 touches in a game yet this year. The Broncos gave up 225 to Leonard Fournette a few weeks ago and Chubb will be able to find similar success at a slight discount to CMC/Cook.
Derrick Henry (6800 FD/5700 DK) – Carolina is not good at stopping the run, they give up 135/1.7 per game. Henry is getting nearly 19 carries per game and has 5 TD. It’s not sexy but Tennessee will NEED to grind it out on the ground to keep CMC off the field, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Henry top 25 carries. This is a volume play but good value for a guy that’s nearly guaranteed to get 20 carries against a weak run D.
WIDE RECEIVER
Kenny Golladay (7600 FD/7700 DK) – We’re back on the Golladay train as he faces the Raiders who are terrible against the pass. Oakland has been roasted for 285/2.7 through the air this season and Golladay has been the big part of Detroit’s passing attack. There isn’t anyone in Oakland who can cover him and I expect Stafford to look his way all day long.
Chris Godwin (8200 FD/7300 DK) – Godwin mainly plays out the slot in TB and that’s the primary weakness in the Seattle pass D who give up 273/game through the air. This game has the highest total on the slate (53.5) and the expectation is that there will be a lot of points scored through the air. Yes, Mike Evans has recently got all the love but the last time TB faced team that struggles vs. the slot (NO, Week 5) Godwin went for 7/125/2.
Mike Williams (5700 FD/4600 DK) – Williams gets the nod as our first value WR. Green Bay is a middle of the road pass defense and Williams has quietly been effective this year getting over 7 targets/game. He’s yet to find the end zone this season which has kept his scoring down but for those with short memories, he led the league in TD last year with 10. By the law of positive regression he’ll have to start converting some of his red zone looks and I like him to get in the box this week.
John Brown (6200 FD/6100 DK) – Washington’s pass defense sucks and Smokey Brown has consistently been the #1 option in Buffalo. Brown has had at least 5 catches and 50 yards in 6 of 7 games this year and Washington bleeds points to perimeter WR.
Tyrell Williams (6300 FD/5900 DK) – Williams has a TD in every game he’s play this season. Detroit struggles to stop the pass, basically I like Williams for the same reasons I’m starting Carr.
OTHER PLAYS TO CONSIDER
Tyler Lockett (7500 FD/7500 DK) – I really love Lockett this week against Tampa Bay’s awful pass D but the pricing doesn’t work for my lineup builds. If you can fit him in he’s poised for another big week.
Allen Robinson (7200 FD/6800 DK) – The Eagles pass defense still sucks, but so does Mitch Trubisky. Robinson has been the only consistent thing in the Bears offense and don’t forget that game last January where Robinson mangled the Eagles for 10/143/1.
Robby Anderson (6200 FD/5500 DK) – I’m limiting Anderson to GPP but I want some pieces of him. Miami is terrible, Anderson is a speed demon and Darnold loves chucking the rock to him deep. A little risky for cash but he’s a perfect GPP play.
TIGHT END
Jonnu Smith (5500 FD/3800 DK) – DO NOT EXPECT LAST WEEK’S PERFORMANCE. However, we have to pay down at TE and I think Smith gives us the best chance for some production. He’s a big body and gets looks from Tannehill in the red zone so as far as the budget guys go he’s my best bet.
OTHER PLAYS TO CONSIDER
Darren Waller (6800 FD/6300 DK) – We’ve talked about Detroit’s struggles stopping the pass and they traded their best safety, the position mainly responsible for stopping the TE. Waller is breaking out this season so if you can fit him in he’s a great option.
Cameron Brate (5100 FD/3100 DK) – As of now he’s questionable but trending towards playing so double check. He’s a punt but OJ Howard is OUT so Brate is the only TE show in town for Tampa. Seattle is vulnerable to the TE so if you’re not going with Godwin, Brate is a nice punt option with TD upside.
DEFENSE
Pittsburgh Steelers (3900 FD/2400 DK) – I don’t get the pricing here. Pittsburgh has 24 sacks (6th best), 10 INT (2nd best), 9 Fumble recoveries (best in NFL) and gives up 20.71 points/game (13th best). Indy is without TY Hilton, their only real deep threat and best receiver.
OTHER PLAYS TO CONSIDER
Buffalo Bills (5000 FD/3800 DK) – Dewayne Haskins gets his first NFL start this week in Buffalo. Haskins is not ready, not good and has potential disaster written all over him. They’re expensive but it’s hard to see Washington doing anything offensively in this game.
Seattle Seahawks (4900 FD/3600 DK) – Well, Jameis Winston loves to turn the ball over so there’s obvious potential for a defensive TD.
That wraps it up this week Canary Crew. I’m nearly done building my lineups but you’ll be able to deduce my strategy from the recommendations above.
Keep an eye out this evening or tomorrow morning for my actual lineups. Good luck this week!
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