A week ago, we released our first Electoral Map Prediction on the 2020 Presidential race.
It should come as no surprise to our regular readers that we had Trump cruising to an easy victory on Election Day.
But man, did we screw up that first map and readers let us know about it.
“HOW COULD YOU HAVE LOUISIANA BLUE?” they screamed.
Or, “WTF ARE YOUS GUYS SMOKING UP THERE?”
A lot of that stuff.
Oddly, no one said anything about us flipping New Jersey from BLUE to RED.
And apparently, everyone missed the “totally unscientific” nature to our prediction. We said we got our information and basis for the picks from the same place the professional pollsters get theirs … thin air.
So, let’s go for Round 2.
Trump Widens Landslide Win in Canary’s Latest Electoral Prediction – Electoral Map Prediction #2
This is how we’re feeling on Oct. 18, just 16 days from Election Day.
So, we’ve made a few changes to our map. Some smart people got in our ear (as did the loud ones) and we’ve updated our prediction.
First, we’ve moved Minnesota back to Biden. And yes, we’ve flipped Louisiana to Trump.
We’re sticking with Trump taking New Jersey, too.
Now for the Trump gains? We’ve got a pair.
New Hampshire is now in Trump’s column. And you can add Nevada to that pile, too.
So, that brings our Electoral Prediction for Oct. 18 to:
- Trump: 338
- Biden: 200
Here’s how it looks on a map generated by 270towin.com.
Click the map to create your own at Methodology
Gut feelings. No biased polling is used to create The Canary’s Electoral Prediction map.
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Gus
October 19, 2020 at 7:58 pm
You may be confusing that map with the Covid-19 rate of infection by states map.
Canary Commenter
October 19, 2020 at 11:57 pm
Unlikely.
Jerry
October 20, 2020 at 3:28 pm
What was your prediction for 2016 and was it accurate?
Canary Commenter
October 20, 2020 at 5:14 pm
We weren’t publishing in 2016. The Canary is relatively new. But no joking, we called Trump winning the election and even got certain states right. Never a doubt. Just going on gut and a growing history involved in politics in some way. Call it a hunch.
Zachary Quade
October 21, 2020 at 8:30 pm
is this a joke?
Canary Commenter
October 21, 2020 at 9:15 pm
Are you?
Dan
October 22, 2020 at 2:29 pm
I hope you are right, Canary. I hope you are exactly right.
I'mJustSayin,OK?
October 25, 2020 at 1:34 pm
I don’t see Trump happening in New Jersey, although I wish it would. Our Trump yard signs are out and we’ve had multiple boat and car parades throughout the state but I think we’re just too “organized” here.
Oh well, stranger things have happened, I guess.
Canary Commenter
October 25, 2020 at 3:30 pm
Perhaps a little wishful thinking. We promise 2 more projections before Election Day. If we posted the same thing week after week, Google would flag it as duplicate content 😉 But seriously, states with extreme reactions to the pandemic definitely pissed off a lot of voters.
Biden Wins
October 26, 2020 at 1:01 am
I want whatever the person making this prediction is smoking.
Canary Commenter
October 26, 2020 at 1:37 am
Nope. Can’t have any.
Joe C
October 27, 2020 at 7:22 pm
Don’t need to smoke to call a Trump landslide. Book it now! Cry me a river on November 4.
Carl
October 27, 2020 at 12:57 am
I hope this is wrong. I hope he wins CO and MN too!! Landslide!
Mike W
October 27, 2020 at 8:54 am
So … Why create these predictions if they are out of thin air?
Canary Commenter
October 27, 2020 at 9:40 am
Why don’t you ask Larry Sabato and Nate Silver the same thing?
Joe C
October 27, 2020 at 7:18 pm
Don’t need to smoke to call a Trump landslide. Book it now! Cry me a river on November 4.
Louann
October 28, 2020 at 4:04 pm
~HIGH FIVE~ fingers crossed!
Cam
October 28, 2020 at 12:07 pm
Is it a joke or is this real ?
Canary Commenter
October 28, 2020 at 12:23 pm
Are you real or are you a joke?
Jc
October 28, 2020 at 11:53 pm
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————————————- – Trump 2020
Trump 2016. Silent majority
Silent majority
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Rob
October 29, 2020 at 12:06 am
Almost spot on with my prediction except I have NM & NJ going Blue & MN going Red. I think Trump will definitely close the gap in states like NJ & NY, but it won’t be enough to actually win it. Also predicting a popular vote win by the president as well.
Klaus Peter Stuchlik
October 30, 2020 at 6:41 pm
When will you update your predictions or will you?
Canary Commenter
October 30, 2020 at 7:29 pm
We’ll have a final prediction on Saturday evening.
Rob
October 30, 2020 at 11:41 pm
“we got our information and basis for the picks from the same place the professional pollsters get theirs … thin air.” LOL!!!
I know we have to give Slow Biden some votes. But do you really think he’s going to get even 200? I don’t. Lame Stream Media attempts to fool saying rally attendance doesn’t mean anything. It means everything! Biden’s support according to his rally attendance makes me laugh hysterically. He has zero chance winning this election. It’s fixed, for sure, if he does.
Donna Palen
November 2, 2020 at 5:10 pm
Where is your updated map that was to be put out on Oct 31st? I’m curious.
Canary Commenter
November 2, 2020 at 5:16 pm
Missed it by a few hours. ‘Twas a busy week.
PA went blue
November 6, 2020 at 3:06 pm
306-232, very close. Only off by 32.