Whenever I hear someone say we can’t stop artificial intelligence, I wonder why we aren’t doing more to rein it in, given what we already know about it.
One obvious reason it’s seen as inevitable is that it will save companies boatloads of money – but by eliminating many types of jobs, including those that require creativity and a human touch.
And what kind of education are kids getting if something does their thinking for them? For that matter, how does relying on AI affect adults’ mental capacities?
Microsoft co-founder and philanthropist Bill Gates, who’s far smarter and more knowledgeable about this issue than I’ll ever be, pointed out these and other threats to humanity in a recent essay called “The turbulent AI era is here. The choices we make now are critical.”
Gates summed it up this way: “We need a plan to ensure that the good outweighs the bad.” But while he listed some compelling benefits that AI can offer, I’m far from reassured.
Not your grandparents’ game changer
AI boosters are hemming and hawing that the upheaval ahead won’t be any different from that of, say, the automobile or the computer. But Gates noted that the jobs those groundbreaking inventions created still required human cognition, while AI can replace it.
Because “it can see, listen, speak, and reason and will eventually do physical work just as smoothly as any human,” he wrote, it will make jobs disappear for good in multiple sectors, including law, customer service, medicine, software and manufacturing, “over the course of a decade rather than a few generations.”
(I saw this a couple of weeks ago when what turned out to be something with a feminine voice, unisex name and upbeat manner took my call to a service center. Only after a couple of minutes and some frustration did I realize it was a bot.)
Enabling fraud and catastrophes
Gates expects new, AI-related jobs will be far scarcer than those today. (I suspect they’ll also be far less interesting and fulfilling. And perhaps less lucrative.)
That’s one reason Gates worries about young people and future generations, but he’s also concerned about AI’s effect on their social skills and education.
“Ironically, the same tool that will allow people to learn more than ever could also lead to many people learning less,” he wrote, citing a preliminary survey suggesting a link between heavy use of AI and diminished critical thinking, especially for youths. This when, more than ever, we need the ability to distinguish between the real and the fake.
He also warned that AI will make it easier for criminals to inflict a host of harms, from fraud to bioterrorism to cyberattacks on hospitals, financial institutions, water systems, power grids and systems for managing government benefits.
You know the risks are huge when even AI developers and their corporate clients are calling for government and business to mount a “collective” defense against cybercriminals.
At the same time, Gates cited the potential for the powerful to exploit AI to gain even more power (and therefore increase the likelihood of even more cruelty and corruption) – and for AI itself to go rogue and act against our interests.
Possible upsides
“With its ability to synthesize knowledge from every scientific field,” Gates wrote, “AI can accelerate innovation in the world’s toughest technical challenges: providing reliable clean energy for everyone, combating climate change, growing enough food, eradicating diseases, and more.”
He said other advantages include a more level playing field between small and large businesses, enabling farmers in impoverished countries to increase their output, freeing up teachers to spend more time with students, helping governments serve constituents more efficiently, and helping constituents tap into government services more easily.
Gates’ suggestions
But whether these become more than mere possibilities depends on those critical choices that Gates said must be made now.
He called for national and international policies to deal with AI’s impact on national security, employment, education, taxation, energy, elections, air and water, public health, the financial system, law enforcement, transportation, public land, and IT systems.
“At the national level, countries will need bodies that can set priorities across government agencies,” he wrote. “… Otherwise, an AI-enabled attack might succeed because no one thought it was their job to stop it.
“But even a country that gets its own house in order will still be exposed to risks that cross borders. This is why an international organization will need to be built in parallel.”
He also proposed taxing AI to strengthen safety nets instead of letting companies write it off as a business expense. And he recommended reserving some jobs for humans.
“AI can improve life for people at every income level,” Gates wrote. “But it won’t do that automatically.”
Maybe it would, with government and business leaders who want to use it to make the world better for everyone instead of just themselves. But I’m skeptical, mainly because of the reelection of Donald Trump and everything he’s been allowed to do since Inauguration Day.
I’d like to believe the polls that show a majority of Americans have had enough of Trump’s grifting, ego trips, warmongering and utter lack of qualifications, but they must remember and vote accordingly in November.
At least for now, what happens with AI depends on human beings and whether the best or worst aspects of human nature will prevail.
Canary note: Opinions expressed in any Op-Ed column appearing on this site are the views of the writer and are not necessarily the opinions of Coal Region Canary.
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