It’s anyone’s guess how much snow might fall on Schuylkill County early next week.
At this point, we’re wondering if it’ll even snow. Depending on which forecasters you want to believe, there’s a chance we could get about 4 inches (or more) of snow and there’s still a chance we can get close to a foot.
So, OK, it does appear that a storm is definitely bearing down on the area. We just can’t say for sure how much snow is coming because so few want to go out on that limb right now.
Updated Snow Totals for Jan. 31 Storm in Schuylkill County
There does seem to be some consensus on one aspect of this upcoming snowstorm: it’s going to stick around for a while.
Estimates so far suggest the snow starts falling on Schuylkill County some time in the late-afternoon or early-evening hours on Sunday. While snow may fall lightly through the rest of Sunday, once the storm stops, it will be persistent and probably not end until sometime on Tuesday.
The big question remains, of course, how much snow are we getting?
Again, that’s up in the air (literally). So, until we get some more firm numbers, we’ll go through what the “experts” are saying to expect from this “big” snowstorm.
The Weather Models are Unpredictable
Everyone loves to look at these weather model images. But for every weather model image you see, there are at least 5 people nearby to tell you how you can’t read much into them. They’re often saying this as they’re reading into the models.
One thing everyone seems to say about these models is that you can’t trust the numbers (ie the snowfall predictions) but you can get an idea where the heaviest snow will fall.
So, take a look at the first Euro model run on Saturday morning.
Image: PivotalWeather.com
It shows the heaviest bands of snow from this storm falling close to Schuylkill County. That’s not far off from where it was the previous day but these models change often.
Accuweather Predicts 10.2 Inches
Accuweather was the first to make an actual old-fashioned snowfall prediction, suggesting on Thursday night that up to a foot of snow could fall on Pottsville from this storm. On Friday night, they weren’t far off that mark, predicting 10.2 inches of snow for the duration of the storm.
Like all the other so-called experts, Accuweather believes that 10 or so inches will fall over a three-day period, including a little more than an inch on Tuesday and an inch on Sunday evening to start.
The Weather Channel Says 5-11 Inches
The Weather Channel does offer up some numbers but they don’t really state flat out how much snow will fall from this storm as a whole. Right now, they’re breaking it down by how much snow falls during the day and night each of the three days of the storm.
Unlike Accuweather, TWC doesn’t call for any accumulating snow on Tuesday.
So, based on the numbers they’re providing now, The Weather Channel predicts between 5-11 inches of snow will fall from this storm. Monday during the day should be the snowiest of the times during the storm.
WNEP Avoids Specifics
And then there are weather experts who, right now, are afraid to go out on that limb and offer up any solid numbers, like at WNEP-TV. On the Thursday night forecast, WNEP simply offered up some kind of risk factor map.
The map below shows where WNEP believes more or less than 4 inches of snow will fall. And as of Thursday, they believe there’s a “Medium Risk” of 4 or more inches of snow will fall on Schuylkill County.
Image: WNEP-TV
WBRE-TV Barely Discussing the Storm
On its Friday night forecast, WBRE-TV at least mentioned the possibility of snow on Monday but there’s still some doubt if anything substantial will materialize. The station offered no snow totals.
So, at this point, you’re probably pretty disappointed. You’ve got very little to go on here. Yes, some forecasters still say close to a foot while others are barely talking about it.
We’ll keep an eye on through the day Saturday and hopefully we get some kind of consensus on these forecasts.
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