Hey Canary Crew we’re back for Week 7 of the 2019 NFL season. We’re looking forward to continuing our Week 6 success so here’s my Week 7 NFL DFS Breakdown for FanDuel and DraftKings.
In Week 6 we hit the money in 100% of our cash games. To see how check out my Week 6 Lineup Review. Here’s a hint…it was good.
As always, my breakdown covers the Sunday Main slate of games, so no TNF, SNF or MNF players will be covered. The bulk of the action on both sites is on the main slate so that’s why I narrow my focus.
For each position I’ll shine the flashlight on 5-8 players at different price points that I think are good plays for this week. The point of this article is to provide you with a pool of players you can build your lineups from. While there’s no magic bullet, this is the group of players that I’ll be building my lineups from. With so many different options I won’t put together a lineup in this article, though I will provide the lineup I’ll be playing on Saturday in a new post. I do that in case I find something in my research or if there is any late injury news that can affect how I build my lineups. To that point, if I end up adding or removing anyone from my list of players, I’ll be sure to update this article with that info.
Are you bored? Give me a follow on Twitter @FlashlightDFS where you can connect with me regarding DFS or seasonal fantasy football.
Here’s your weekly reminder that these are the players I found through my research process that I believe will give us an edge on Sunday. I can’t write up every star player, so if you want to play a stud that I don’t write up go for it.
We’re going to need to spend down at QB this week to afford the RB talent that’s out there, so the three highest priced QBs are only going to get a quick mention. Obviously if you can afford them in your roster builds they’re all great plays but my focus this week is on the 2nd tier of QB pricing.
THE TOP 3
Russell Wilson (8500 FD/6600 DK) – Russ is at the top of his game versus a struggling defense on the road. The addition of Marcus Peters at CB could help a little but not enough to move me off.
Lamar Jackson (8400 FD/6800 DK) – It’s like starting two players when you play Lamar – a RB and a QB. Without the running he’s not that interesting but with both it’s hard to imagine Jackson not scoring big.
Deshaun Watson (8300 FD/7000 DK) – Watson faces Indianapolis, nothing to fear. In fact, Indy has been vulnerable to the big play so this could be a smash spot.
THE BEST OF THE REST
Kyler Murray (7700 FD/6700 DK) – The Giants D is trash and Murray has been lighting up bad defenses this season. Opposing QBs have been AVERAGING 304 yards and 2.6 TD against the Giants. Murray can exceed both, has rushing upside and the Giants have given up 3 rushing TD to quarterbacks.
Jared Goff (7800 FD/6200 DK) – Atlanta’s pass D is complete complete garbage. How bad are they? Over their last three Atlanta has given up and average of 331 yards and 3.6 TD per game. Hell, even Marcus Mariota put 3 TDs on them and he just got benched! Meanwhile, Goff has posted Madden-like numbers in two of his last three. I’m willing to forget last week’s meltdown and run him out there this week.
Kirk Cousins (7300 FD/5800 DK) – Detroit sneakily kinda sucks against the pass but haven’t given up the TDs to bring that to the forefront. Opposing QBs average 291.6 yards/game against them. Cousins is on a heater and will be looking to silence his critics with another good game. I like the discount for a guy with big game potential.
Daniel Jones (7200 FD/6100 DK) – Danny Dimes gets Arizona who is not good defensively. This is a salary saving match up play but Jones gets back his two best offensive weapons this week – Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram both valuable pass catchers. This game has shootout written all over it and if that’s the case Jones is a cheap way to get exposure to the points.
****Don’t forget about Aaron Rodgers (7600 FD/6400 DK) – He’s the 8th most expensive QB on FD and 6th most on DK. Oakland isn’t good against the pass and that’s a VERY attractive discount for a player as good as Rodgers. The fear is lack of pass catching options but Rodgers always seems to figure things out.
HIGH PRICED TALENT
Saquon Barkley (8600 FD/8900 DK) – After missing 3 games with a high ankle sprain Barkley is back. He’s in a dream match up versus the Cardinals who are a bottom 5 defense in the league. He’s expensive, so you have to believe that he’ll get a full work load and not be limited. My feeling is that if he wasn’t ready to take a full work load, they wouldn’t bring him back at all this week. He’s back, so he’s ready. Lock and load on Barkley friends.
Dalvin Cook (8300 FD/8000 DK) – If you’re not ready to jump on Barkley look no further than Cook. Detroit gives up the 3rd most RB fantasy points/game in the league. Cook is the focal point of the Vikings offense, has 20 or more touches in 5/6 games (18 in the other) and 6 TD in 6 games. The Lions are giving up 133.8 yards/game on the ground.
David Johnson (7400 FD/7800 DK) – DJ hasn’t topped 100 rushing yards yet this year but it hasn’t stopped him from producing. He’s catching 5 balls/game for 52.5 yards to go with his 49.6 rush yards/game. The Giants defense is a bottom 5 unit which will lead to plenty of opportunity both as a pass catcher and runner. DJ is still the goal line back and this week he’ll see plenty of action.
Leonard Fournette (7900 FD/7000 DK) – Fournette is a workhorse getting nearly 25 touches per game. The Jags face Cincinnati this week who are DEAD LAST in the league versus the run. Opposing RB are averaging 126.5 rush yards, 66 receiving yards and 1.6 TD per game against the Bengals. Fournette has had at least 26 touches and 118 total yards in has last 3.
Josh Jacobs (6700 FD/5000 DK) – Green Bay has been bleeding points to opposing RB all season and this week it’s Josh Jacobs who gets to take advantage. Jacobs is leading the way in Oakland and getting nearly 20 touches per game and topping 99 total yards in 4/5 games this year.
Tevin Coleman (6200 FD/5600 DK) – Coleman led the 49ers backfield in snaps with 56% (43) versus just 35% (27) for Matt Breida. Coleman gets the work inside the red zone as well so he’s my favorite 49ers RB to score this week which goes along with his yardage upside. Washington has the 5th worst rushing defense in the league and have given up over 120 rush yards in 4 of 6 games. Across the NFL San Francisco is 2nd in rushing attempts, 3rd in rush yards and 7th in rush TD so there are plenty of carries to go around.
Derrick Henry (6500 FD/5800 DK) – Oh lord, here he is again. Henry faces a beat up Chargers defense who just got throttled at home by Pittsburgh. Despite last week’s poor outing, Henry is still getting nearly 20 touches/game and has a TD or 100 yards in 5/6 games. The Chargers give up 109 yards and .66 TD/game on the ground.
Devonta Freeman (6400 FD/5400 DK) – I can’t not put him in here due to the price. This game will likely shoot out as neither defense is that good. Freeman is the pass catching back in Atlanta and has come on recently after a slow start. He’s quite cheap for a guy getting 20+ touches per game and has positive TD upside to go with it. The Rams have given up 7 TD to opposing RB in their 6 games.
Devin Singletary (5800 FD/5400 DK) – The Bills rookie is back after missing 3 games with a hamstring injury. He’s clearly a much more dynamic player than Frank Gore, but how much work will he get? The good news is he probably doesn’t need much against Miami who are terrible against the run, giving up 149.8 yards rushing, 4.4 catches, 44 yards receiveng and 1.6 TD/game to opposing RB. The point is that Singletary should be able to produce with limited touches, and if he gets a bigger work load, look out!
Matt Breida (5600 FD/5300 DK) – Here’s your weekly reminder that Breida is always a threat for a big play and will get a good amount of work spelling Tevin Coleman. If you can’t fit Coleman in to your lineup, Breida is in play.
With the RB situation I’m backing off Hopkins, Julio and Thomas but they’re all superstars who can be played at any time. We just need to save salary however we can. I like them in the order listed above with Hop significantly above the other two.
Cooper Kupp (7800 FD/7400 DK) – Atlanta is awful against the pass, see Goff, Jared above. Kupp is putting up crazy numbers this year. Removing last week’s debacle his average game is: 12.6 targets, 8.2 catches, 101 yards, 0.8 TD. Folks, that’s an average game of 19.08 FD points and 25.58 DK points per game. Atlanta is the worst passing defense in the league, Kupp is the #1 option on the Rams. Get it?
TY Hilton (7600 FD/5900 DK) – TY is back from his injury in a game where Indy will have to pass to keep pace with the high flying Houston offense. Hilton is usually the first look for Brisset and the Texans have given up 1736 yards and 11 TD through the air this year. Hilton is averaging 6/58/1 per game and will have chances to beat the Texans deep.
Robert Woods (7300 FD/5900 DK) – If you can’t afford Kupp then Woods is a suitable alternative. He hasn’t found the end zone yet this year but that could change this week. Again, against Atlanta any pass catcher is in play.
Tyler Lockett (6500 FD/6600 DK) – Lockett got hosed out of a TD last week but he still have a good game going 5/75 in Cleveland. Lockett hasn’t had as many targets recently which has probably kept his pricing/ownership down but he’s still producing in Seattle. The Ravens are giving up nearly 270 passing yards/game and this game has shootout potential.
Golden Tate (6100 FD/5800 DK) – Tate has played well in his two games with the Giants and is seeing targets on a regular basis thus far. Arizona should be more concerned with the return of Barkely and Engram which should help to balance the offense and lead to more open looks for Tate. Expect a Julian Edelman kind of stat line for Tate this week.
Larry Fitzgerald (5600 FD/6100 DK) – Old man Fitz is still in play as long as his price stays low. He’s getting plenty of targets (8.7/game) and has TD upside as a big-body receiver in the red zone. If you’re passing on Kyler Murray and DJ, Fitz is a good way to get cheap exposure to this offense.
THE GPP CREW
Brandin Cooks (6700 FD/5400 DK) – Cooks has been an afterthought in the Rams passing game this season but have I mentioned that the Falcons secondary sucks? Cooks is the deep threat so he’s worth a GPP dart and could be contrarian due to his price.
Will Fuller (6300 FD/6200 DK) – Fuller always has the chance to pop one off over the top and Indy doesn’t have anyone in the secondary who can run with him. Fuller is GPP ONLY this week so stay away in cash but I’m definitely going to sprinkle him in some GPPs this week.
Evan Engram (6800 FD/6500 DK) – Look, if I have to explain to you that athletic TE versus the Cardinals is a good start then just go back and read my 6 previous breakdowns. Play Engram, no further analysis needed.
Hunter Henry (5700 FD/4000 DK) – Love the price discount here for a guy who just went 8/100/2. This week he faces the Titans who despite having a pretty good defense are 8th worst in the league versus the tight end. Last week Henry was 2nd in targets and led the team in catches, yards and TD.
George Kittle (7100 FD/6700 DK) – The people’s TE is at it again and should kick some ass this week. The Redskins give up the 10th most yards/game to TE and Kittle leads the 49ers in every single receiving statistic.
Mark Andrews (6700 FD/4900 DK) – The Seahawks have been beaten by the TE before and are giving up the 4th most fantasy points per game to the position. Andrews has been steady as a rock seeing no fewer than 7 targets in any game. With Hollywood Brown likely to miss Andrews becomes the top receiving threat for Baltimore.
Austin Hooper (6600 FD/5300 DK) – Hooper has been a target monster in Atlanta seeing 8.33/game. In fact, he leads the Falcons in catches and Yards, has 3 TD and trails Julio Jones by only 3 targets. The Rams just got Jaylon Ramsey and he’s going to be locked up on Julio all day, leaving targets for Hooper to pick up.
Darren Fells (5400 FD/3100 DK) – Don’t bother on FD with Henry only 300 more. On DK you can roll the dice with Fells who has been somewhat involved in Houston’s offense in the last 4 weeks. Indianapolis is 3rd worst in the league versus the TE so as a GPP dart throw Fells has TD upside.
Buffalo Bills (5500 FD/4300 DK) – Anyone versus the Dolphins, but especially the Bills who are actually a very good defense. The Bills Mafia will be whipped in to a frenzy after jumping through tables and throwing sex toys on the field so this one has disaster written all over it for Miami. The Bills are damn near a must play.
San Francisco 49ers (5000 FD/4100 DK) – There might be two ridiculous games on Sunday, Bills/Dolphins and this one. The Niners D has been ferocious this year and the Redskins are really bad at football. Slight discount from the Bills and definitely a great play.
New Orleans Saints (4400 FD/2900 DK) & Chicago Bears (4500 FD/3000 DK) – This might be a 3-2 final score. Both offenses are non-dynamic and both defenses have been playing very well. You can’t go wrong with either which is why I listed them together. Injury news is important here: Alvin Kamara is banged up, if he sits then the Bears get a big upgrade. If Kamara goes and Mitch Trubisky doesn’t, the Saints get the upgrade.
Jacksonville Jaguars (4900 FD/3500 DK) – I personally hate the Jags defense due to the price but you can’t ignore the match up. Cinci is absolutely awful, Andy Dalton has been sacked 3rd most in the league (22) and Jacksonville is 4th in the league in sacks (19).
Minnesota Vikings (3800 FD/3100 DK) – The Vikings D is for real and the Lions offense is mediocre at best. The Vikings rank in the top 10 in the NFL in points allowed, sacks and interceptions.
That’s it for this week Canary Crew. Expect to see lineups/updates on Sunday morning.