Week 5 NFL DFS Breakdown for FanDuel and DraftKings
Hello Canary Crew and welcome to Week 5 of the 2019 NFL season. We’re looking for a bounce back week after a disastrous Week 4, so here’s my Week 5 NFL DFS Breakdown for FanDuel and DraftKings.
Busy week so I didn’t have a chance to break down Week 4 but this gif pretty much sums it up:
Yes Canary Crew, Week 4 was a flaming dumpster pirate ship sailed to the bottom of the ocean by Captain Case Keenum. Perhaps too bold of a call letting Captain Case take the wheel but what can you do?
As always, my breakdown covers the Sunday Main slate of games, so no TNF, SNF or MNF players will be covered. The bulk of the action on both sites is on the main slate so that’s why I narrow my focus.
For each position I’ll shine the flashlight on 5-8 players at different price points that I think are good plays for this week. The point of this article is to provide you with a pool of players you can build your lineups from. While there’s no magic bullet, this is the group of players that I’ll be building my lineups from. With so many different options I won’t put together a lineup in this article, though I will provide the lineup I’ll be playing on Saturday in a new post. I do that in case I find something in my research or if there is any late injury news that can affect how I build my lineups. To that point, if I end up adding or removing anyone from my list of players, I’ll be sure to update this article with that info.
Follow me on Twitter @FlashlightDFS for my latest updates, last minute info, game day entertainment and lineup advice.
I don’t break down every single player at the top. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that guys like Pat Mahomes, CMC, Julio Jones or Travis Kelce are good players. If you want to play a stud player that I don’t highlight, go for it.
Deshaun Watson (8000 FD/6700 DK) – Watson struggled last week against Carolina but he gets a break this week with the Falcons who allowed Marcus Mariota to go for 227/3 last week. He has been sacked a whopping 18 times this season but will have more time to throw this week against Atlanta who have only managed 5 sacks through 4 games. Watson has just missed on multiple long plays this season and Atlanta’s secondary is decimated with injury.
Tom Brady (7600 FD/6500 DK) – Don’t let last week’s lackluster performance scare you, Buffalo’s defense is very good. Brady gets the reeling Redskins who look to be circling the drain already this season. Brady has carved up bad competition so far this season and Washington fits the bill. Take out Buffalo and Brady is averaging 303/2.33 a game and Washington won’t be able to stop him.
Carson Wentz (7800 FD/6100 DK) – Speaking of bad defenses, Wentz gets the Jets who have given up an average of 287/1 this season. Wentz hasn’t been below 19.5 FD points yet this year, has accounted for 2+ scores in every game and he’s got 9 passing and 1 rushing TD.
Jameis Winston (7600 FD/6200 DK) – Winston gave the world a taste of his skills last week with 385/4 and 1 INT last week versus the Rams. He’s steadily improving every week which is a good sign that he’s picking up the new offense. The Saints are giving up 279/1.5 a week in a game with the 4th highest expected total on the slate.
Teddy Bridgewater (7200 FD/5200 DK) – DK price is MUCH more attractive since you get a nice discount. The Bucs stop the run and can’t stop the pass, so it’s likely that the NO game plan will be through the air. The Bucs are giving up 318/1.5 a game through the air. The discount on DK accounts for the fact that Teddy hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards yet this season but this could be a good week for him. I’d take the DK discount but on FD the price isn’t as fair.
Andy Dalton (7500 FD/5700 DK) – It’s not the match up here that makes Dalton a GPP play, everyone knows the Cardinals defense sucks. His price on FD makes him an interesting idea since there are more secure plays priced close by. Dalton is averaging 287/1.25 and with a premium match up he should exceed that.
Ezekiel Elliot (8800 FD/8300 DK) – Zeke is good, his line is good and Tony Pollard is but a distant memory (only 2 snaps last week). In their last three games Green Bay has surrendered an average of 174 yards and 1.66 TD on the ground. Dallas is 6th in the league with 118 rushing attempts and Zeke will get nearly all of them. Lock and load.
Leonard Fournette (6900 FD/6400 DK) – Fournette exploded last week posting 225 yards on 29 carries. Jacksonville faces off against Carolina who is a bottom 5 run defense this year giving up 131/1 per game on the ground. Fournette accounts for 76% of rushing attempts and 75% of rushing yards.
Dalvin Cook (8200 FD/8400 DK) – The Giants are nothing special against the run and this offense clearly runs through Cook, much to the disdain of the WR crew. Cook is averaging 130 yards on 21.5 touches per game and has scored 5 TD this season, best in the league. New York is giving up 109.8 yards/game on the ground.
James Conner (6900 FD/6200 DK) – Baltimore was carved up last week allowing 4 TD and 193 on the ground and 5 catches for 45 yards to the Cleveland RBs. While the rushing game hasn’t been stellar so far for Conner he’s been offsetting that with receptions setting a career high last week with 8/83/1. Pittsburgh wants to keep the game easy for QB Mason Rudolph and Conner is the beneficiary.
David Johnson (6800 FD/7500 DK) – Johnson’s rushing has been lackluster but he’s had 6+ catches in 3 of 4 games this season and he’s getting 17 touches per game. Cincinnati just got lit up by the Steelers running backs through the air (16/140/1) so it’s fair to predict that Johnson will see the ball a lot this week both on the ground and through the air.
Mark Ingram (7500 FD/6300 DK) – Ingram was a victim of game flow last week as things got away from the Ravens and they opted for more passing situations and cycled him in and out with Gus Edwards. This week they have the Steelers who haven’t been stellar against the run. Ingram is still getting goal line touches and will be in line for a full work load this week.
MONITOR THE SITUATION
Melvin Gordon (6800 FD/7000 DK) and Austin Ekeler (7200 FD/6700 DK) – It’s impossible to know how the Chargers will use their two RBs this week, but they do have a great match up against Denver who just go roasted by Leonard Fournette. This is a situation that we’ll have to monitor, but at the end of the day if we want to dive in with a Chargers RB we’ll probably have to pick one and hope we made the right choice. This uncertainty is why I have them ranked down here. If we get any clarity pertaining to role/workload they’ll move up the list.
HIGH PRICED OPTIONS
Michael Thomas (7700 FD/6600 DK) – Thomas gets absolutely peppered with targets (10.5/game) and is the clear number on option in New Orleans. The Bucs are giving up 318 passing yards a game so Thomas will get his share this week.
Deandre Hopkins (8500 FD/7800 DK) – You can feel the frustration building in Houston over the lack of offense but this match up against Atlanta is a chance to get right. Atlanta’s secondary has injury issues and their pass rush is non-existant so Hop should be running free all afternoon. Yeah he’s pricey, but this could be a blow up game if he’s able to finally connect with Watson on the long ball.
Chris Godwin (7800 FD/6900 DK) and Mike Evans (7700 FD/7100 DK) – I know it’s a cop out to list both, but both have a good opportunity this week. I lean Godwin over Evans just due to the fact that New Orleans got roasted by a more athletic guy in Tyler Lockett so that’s more Godwin than Evans. If this game plays out like Vegas thinks there are going to be a lot of points and yards and as we saw last week where Godwin and Evans accounted for 68% of receiving yards, there’s going to be plenty of production to go around.
Adam Thielen (6900 FD/6700 DK) – Oh Lord, I can feel myself falling for this one. Thielen called out Cousins and the Vikings play calling for being total shit so far this year and it’s tough to argue from a passing standpoint. Cousins has been awful and Thielen is suffering. So, this is partly a narrative play but also based in fact. Amari Cooper and Mike Evans feasted on the Giants defense and Thielen (and Diggs for that matter) will have the same opportunity.
Alshon Jeffrey (6700 FD/5900 DK) – The Jets have struggled to stop the pass versus good QBs this season and Jeffrey will have a chance to take advantage of that. He should see more single coverage than normal as the Jets try to stop Zach Ertz in the middle of the field which will create opportunity for chunk plays downfield. As a big body receiver, Jeffrey is always a threat in the red zone as well.
Stefon Diggs (6000 FD/6200 DK) – See Thielen, Adam above.
Allen Robinson (6900 FD/5600 DK) – Yes, it’s a low total game, Chase Daniel is starting at QB and the game is in London. However…A Rob is tops with 34 targets this season and Daniel looked his way 7 times last week for a 7/77 stat line. Oakland has given up 281 yards a game and 9 TD, so they can be had via the pass.
Tyler Boyd (6700 FD/6500 DK) – 39 targets leads the Bengals and they play Arizona who have surrendered 1084 yards and 10 TD through the air so far. Boyd is the clear #1 option and with the departure of John Ross to the IR (more on that later) the Bengals will count on him for big plays in the passing game once again.
Marquise Brown (5400 FD/5700 DK) – After a blistering hot start to the season Hollywood has cooled off in the last two games but don’t let that lull you to sleep. Pittsburgh has struggled to cover the slot and Brown is 2nd on the Ravens in snaps from the slot. Pair that up with his big play ability and this is good week to get back on track.
Will Fuller (5700 FD/4500 DK) – Fuller has been snake bitten this season missing out on long TD catches in 3 of 4 weeks. With the depleted Atlanta secondary and weak pass rush there’s a good chance he shakes loose deep. Watson looks his way 19% of the time and he’s always on the field, playing 95% of snaps.
Auden Tate (5300 FD/3500 DK) – Tate led the way for Bengals receivers last week going 4-50. He’s got 16 targets over the last two weeks and with John Ross going to IR he has a clear path to playing time. Arizona has given up 10 TD through the air this season and at 6-5/228 it’s unlikely they’ll be able to cover him in the red zone.
Dionte Johnson (5000 FD/4400 DK) – He’s got at least 50 yards and a TD in his last two games. With the Ravens focused on Juju and Conner, Johnson is in line to get some looks from Mason Rudolph. He gets decent volume at this bargain price as well, getting 12 targets over the last two weeks.
Zach Ertz (6600 FD/6000 DK) – Ertz leads the Eagles in targets, catches and yards. The Jets have been carved by quality quarterbacks this season and they won’t have CJ Mosely back this week, a key LB in their defensive scheme. Though he hasn’t scored yet, Ertz is averaging 6/64 so far this year. Add a TD or two and that’s a huge game.
Tyler Eifert (4600 FD/3300 DK) – Arizona has allowed an average stat line of 6.75/94/1.25 to tight ends this year and Eifert is the starting TE for the Bengals. Eifert hasn’t shown much this year which is reflected in his price but the match up is too good not to consider.
Darren Waller (6400 FD/5000 DK) – While it’s never comforting to start anyone against the Bears, Waller has shown to be a vital piece of the Oakland passing attack. He’s had no fewer than 7 targets, 6 catches and 53 yards in any game this season.
Jimmy Graham (5500 FD/4300 DK) – Graham emerged last week in the 2nd half after Davonte Adams left with a toe injury. He ended with 9 targets that became 6/61/1. He has 2 TD on the season, both in the red zone and the Cowboys showed weakness to the TE position in Week 1 when Evan Engram blew up for 11/116/1. While I don’t expect that kind of production, Graham should see 6+ targets and be a red zone threat.
New England Patriots (5500 FD/4300 DK) – If you can afford them in your lineup there’s no reason not to expect another stellar performance. As of this writing the Redskins STILL don’t know who will start at QB so it’s fully possible that this game becomes a offensive disaster. As a side note, I can’t believe Jay Gruden still has a job.
Philadelphia Eagles (4900 FD/3700 DK) – While they struggle to stop the pass, Philly’s run defense is excellent. Even if Sam Darnold returns to the game Philly should be able to feast on the anemic Jets offense.
Tennessee Titans (4800 FD/3000 DK) – Matt Barkely is NOT the answer but will get the start for Buffalo if Josh Allen doesn’t clear concussion protocol. Buffalo doesn’t have a lot going on offense to begin with, and if Allen is out they have even less.
Chicago Bears (5000 FD/3800 DK) – The Bears get Oakland in London this week. The Bears have 17 sacks and 8 turnovers this season and they will terrorize Derek Carr and the Raiders offense all day on Sunday as well.
Minnesota Vikings (4500 FD/3200 DK) – The Vikings have 11 sacks and 6 turnovers this year and go against a rookie QB without his best player (Saquon Barkely will miss this week again). Don’t let the Giants offensive output fool you from the last two games, Tampa Bay and Washington are two bottom 5 defenses.
Pittsburgh Steelers (3400 FD/2100 DK) – The Steelers have 14 sacks and 9 turnovers. It’s entirely possible that Baltimore’s offense looked great against three inferior defenses (Miami, Arizona, KC) and may be fools gold. At 1-3 the Steelers can’t afford to lose a home division game. They’re nearly minimum price on both sites, you could do worse.
Ok Canary Crew, that’s it for Week 5. As usual I’ll keep an eye on practice and injury reports and update as necessary. Look for lineups by Sunday morning.
Also, don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @FlashlightDFS if you have any questions about daily or seasonal.